My Orchids. Phalaenopsis "Triangle". Photo ET |
Cargolux in an Italian
Triangulation.
A decision by Cargolux
to transfer one additional aircraft and 25 jobs to Cargolux Italia SpA
rightfully has all the Unions’ radars going off. In the background, reference
can be made to an interview by Dirk Reich, the new CEO, that Italian pilots
work 25% more than their Luxembourg counterparts, and cost 20% less. Work more
for less pay seems to be the desirable goal for Cargolux management. But that
is not exactly Union speak. Is it necessary, or just desirable, or should it be
even a topic to work more for less? Is the Italy strategy a triangulation
strategy to force pay cuts elsewhere in the company down to Italian levels, at
Cargolux Luxembourg in particular or even generally in the future Luxembourg
“Tripartite” discussions? The idea of triangulation being that disequilibrium
in the triangle will eventually be leveled out in bringing down high costs in
one corner by shifting them to the more “cost-effective” corner. This way internal
competition is created with the owners in the top corner of the triangle
providing the arbitrage.
Cargolux Italia runs
losses ever since its creation in 2008. The additional aircraft is supposed to
reduce losses at the Italian operation. Interestingly the decision to create
Cargolux Italia was already a triangulation of another kind. Its purpose was to
circumvent restrictions on direct flights to/from Asia and North America using
a third country. Crews were Luxembourg crews, until Italian regulations, or so
it was argued, imposed Italian crews on the Italian company. This is a surprising
requirement in the Common Market where exactly no restrictions on free movement
are supposed to be the norm. This rule was maybe not true, but cheaper, and
could not be verified yet. In the meantime the reason to operate Cargolux
Italia has become obsolete, following new agreements on third country traffic.
The Pilots Association ALPL has commissioned an expertise from Janezic &
Schmidt Lawyers OG, on the particular aspects that led Cargolux to create
Cargolux Italia SpA. It analyzes the need in view of new developments in air
services agreements to keep the Italian operation alive at all. The interim
report so far seems to confirm that for the main reason, servicing the third
countries mentioned at the time, the arrangement in Italy is obsolete.
Why would Cargolux
Management then pursue a strategy to consolidate and keep alive a losing and
possibly useless operation? Obviously to improve its results, and cut 7 years
of losses there. However, if despite the low payroll costs and more work hours,
profitability could not be achieved, why persevere in a business that does not
help the bottom line? As the pressure tool in the triangulation? The
alternative would be to shut it down.
The hope and responsibility
of Management is of course to make sure the company operates in a profitable
way. It has probably determined that by providing critical mass to the Italian
operation, earnings should increase and incremental costs decrease. For the CEO
of a “private” company, it would be a normal bet on the future to strive for an
effort to reduce costs and increase revenue. If he fails, he bears the blame.
However maintaining that Cargolux is a private company is a practical lie to
hide political responsibility. Cargolux still is a quintessential Luxembourg
company, and its destiny has important national implications on employment at a
moment where we hit new records in unemployment, on Luxair, on the airport in
general and on the government’s plan to develop logistics as another leg of our
economic setup.
So is this maneuver a
bootstrapping in view of a capital raise next year, or is it an elaborate
triangulation beyond Cargolux to declare war on the tripartite, or is it just
kabuki in the context of upcoming negotiations with the unions?
It might be wise to
consider an alternative way to make sure present decisions do not make matters
worse. Isn’t there a smoother way to go along? Cargolux proudly always could
refer to the “Cargolux Spirit”. That spirit is borne by employees. It is worrisome
if in a recent companywide survey only about 30% of the employees responded. For
those the three most important issues to address at Cargolux are: Leadership 66.8%, Teamwork 62.5%, and Respect
61.9%. That is a shock to the Cargolux spirit, the shrill warning of a morale
problem.
At this moment we hear
about losses that are said to be $11 million “below target” (Forson speak to
hide the real total loss that I would estimate then at $25.4 million, given
that the target was already a loss of only $14.4 million) in the first half of
the year. The company also is said to target a total fleet of 30 aircraft,
among those 5 aircraft for charter flights, 5 for the China routes including
Italian flights, and 5 for wet leases. This is a good but bold move to achieve
profitability. The financing of new aircraft is of course a major question, as
existing shareholders might not all be fit enough financially to carry their
share. And if new shares have to be issued for raising capital, it will of
course affect ownership, and the most willing one and capable to jump in could
be the Chinese partner HNCA for the financing of 5 new B747-8 aircraft.
Which brings up the
future situation that should be better addressed now, the creation of yet
another company as a Chinese joint venture down the road. Will this company,
let’s call it Cargozhou, be another triangulation, and duplicate the Italian
issues at hand? With the Italian operation still in place, it will add yet another
corner to the triangle, achieving thus the wonderful squaring of the triangle.
It will be another matter of concern to think through now, instead of in two
years from now. At the table, the discussions will be around profitability,
political will, solutions, and Leadership 66.8%, Teamwork 62.5%, and Respect
61.9%. The sum of it will define the Cargolux Spirit, and its capacity to
achieve all expectations.