Ukraine: When Your Security
is Guaranteed by the “Great Powers”.
When “Great Powers”
give you their solemn assurances that they will protect and defend you against an
aggressor in exchange for giving up nuclear weapons still on your territory since
Soviet times, be suspicious! One of the great powers might become an aggressor
while the others will mostly stand by. Sorry Ukraine!
It so happened with my
home country Luxembourg. The Treaty of London signed on May 11, 1867, declared
the Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg eternally neutral. Therefore, Luxembourg also dismantled
its enormous fortress. Then it was overrun twice by German forces in WW I and
WW II.
The “Memorandum on
security assurances in connection with Ukraine’s accession to the Treaty on the
Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. Budapest, 5 December 1994” bears so many
common elements with the Treaty of London. The most important lesson is you
only think you are protected. Which comes with a high price, because you are
not.
The Russian aggression
themed “special operation” is in its 19th day. It wasn’t supposed to
last that long, and slowly Russian generals must bring the bad news to the
Kremlin.
It can be assumed that
Russian military engagements and tactics are directly derived from Soviet ones.
Those are characterized by massive use of artillery, the occasional more
creative drop of airborne troops far behind enemy lines to secure an area to be
joined by ground troops. Based on those tactics, a Warsaw Pact attack on NATO
in Western Europe aimed at reaching the Atlantic in France after 8 days of
operations. Taking Kyiv based on those plans would have been possible in 48-72
hours. It did not happen. There are only three possible reasons:
·
The Ukrainian Armed Forces and the population fight a heroic
battle.
·
The Russian forces are not what propaganda wants them to be. It
is bad planning and bad execution.
·
The slow move of the “special operation” is done on purpose, to
test Western reaction and resolve. One outrageous next step after another,
crossing another line.
No doubt, Ukrainians
put up a fight of historic resonance. To the point that a more logical
adversary would concede that the war was lost and break contact. Putin is still
too vengeful. Revenge is a bad advisor.
Military threats
remain credible until they are tested. Military adventurism is a sort of
Russian roulette: if it fails, you expose your unexpected weakness to the
world. The only remedy that is left is a bigger gun. Nukes. But that could be
the last shot you fired. Hate is a bad advisor.
So why does the
Russian military underperform, way below where official propaganda put it?
Putin is a trained spy, conspiring to acquire Western technologies. His style
is conspiring. Military operations however are clearly designed plans. The
Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces is not a trained military. But as a military
chief he became rich. If the Soviet style Command and Control structures are
still in place, that leaves very little initiative to lower echelons, to the
squad commander, Platoon, Company and Battalion commanders. Opposed to Western
counterparts who are encouraged to take initiatives within any given battle
procedures, Russians are bound to a rigid chain of command. Even a lay person
watching TV could wonder what the purpose of 40 miles long bumper to bumper column
of armored vehicles was, staying parked on roads. Even basic training would teach
that in such a setup, you can get shot like fish in a barrel. It would have
happened had the Ukrainian Air Force received additional aircraft. As by now
some Russian leaders, such as National Guard Chief Viktor Zolotov, dare to
speak out, conceding that the “special operation” is not going too well. The
lack of training and incompetence in the upper echelons are surprisingly overwhelming.
Those troops are not combat-ready. They also lack basic humanitarian principles.
One could have
surmised that the slow progress was a calculated one: testing Western resolve,
crossing a line, testing another line until achieving the goals without risking
a military response. This would have fitted the profile of a scheming KGB/FSB
man. However, those salami tactics violate the principles of war for an
effective use of force.
On day 19 Russian
operations continue, violating Geneva Conventions, and incidences of war crimes
are multiplying. Western response has been mitigated, mostly because of Putin’s
nuclear bluff. He has crossed multiple red lines since the Chechnian war, or
Georgian invasion or the annexation of Crimea. All episodes exposed Western
weakness. The performance of the US, NATO and its individual members is weak.
There was no show of unity and resolve in 2014 in the Crimean case. It has become
the template for all further “special operations”. It has become the template
also for Taiwan. Because from the sidelines are watching China, Iran, and North
Korea. And China may one day be in a position, where Russia weakened through senseless wars, will lose Siberia to China. For now China is already winning every day.
From the sidelines is
also Trump heckling the performance of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. It will
impact the 2022 and maybe the 2024 US elections.
It should be
convenient here to show that all this is going on with players who signed a
guarantee agreement with Ukraine called “Memorandum on security assurances” on
December 5, 1994. Here follows the agreement. It has so many implications for
the credibility of the United Nations and the three “great powers” that are
signatories, that it speaks dramatically for itself.
