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| Orchid Miss Calculation |
Russia’s Group Wagner
Rebellion: Wallenstein’s Camp in Rostov-on-Don
There is a compelling
parallel between a medieval historic figure, Albrecht von Wallenstein, and
Yevgeny Prigozhin, the owner of the private Russian mercenary army, Group
Wagner.
In the early 17th
century, during the Thirty Years’ War, Albrecht von Wallenstein had assembled a
private army of twenty thousand and eventually forty thousand mercenaries to intervene
in the various conflicts in the interest of Emperor Ferdinand II of the Holy
Roman Empire. Wallenstein, who over time became very powerful, conspired
against the emperor. He would soon be assassinated on the orders of the emperor.
The Wagner Group has its
similarities with Wallenstein’s army of mercenaries. Yevgeny Prigozhin here is
Wallenstein’s alter ego. Group Wagner is a sort of hybrid military force: not officially
Russian, but no doubt activated by the Kremlin, beyond the margins of the Geneva
conventions on war. The Group intervenes in undeclared wars or “special
operations” in the Ukraine, in Syria, and in several African countries. If the
Group has a military success, it is a Russian success. If not, the Kremlin has
plausible denial that Russia is not involved and that the Group is a private
security force.
But just as in medieval
times, private armies could get a life of their own. And so it happened that
the modern Russian interpretation of the medieval predecessor defied the emperor
in Moscow. The mutiny ended up in a negotiated deal. Yevgeny Prigozhin goes
into exile, and his men were forgiven their rebellion and treason charges. Prigozhin’s
whereabouts are unknown.
Miscalculations have
their consequences. Wallenstein and Prigozhin know by now. About to learn is
Vladimir Putin himself. The “Special Military Operation” in Ukraine has been a huge
miscalculation that sooner or later will have lasting consequences. Putin
believed in the standard military procedures as they were developed at the time
of the Soviet Union. Here is how those procedures would have made a three dayaffair of the Russian aggression. NATO had to deal with the possibility that
Soviet military planning could be accurate: a Soviet attack on Western Europe assumed
Warsaw Pact forces reaching Western France in 8 days. Crossing Belarus would
put Kyiv at 150 km. A 48-hour operation with a combined air assault. That’s
what the old Soviet field manuals said. That’s also what the propaganda said.
Now we know NATO was over
prepared at the time of the Soviet Union, Russian classical armed forces don’t
match their calculations. Except for its nuclear arsenal, Russia no longer is a
superpower. China has to re-evaluate its support. And if there is a second
collapse down the road, some in Beijing might want to have a look at the Asian
parts of Russia. I have met a prominent member of MSS, the Chinese equivalent of
the CIA. He oversees septentrional Siberia. Start dreaming?
