Luxembourg and Qatar, Indispensable Nations for the US

My Orchids. Vanda "Morgenland". Photo ET

Luxembourg and Qatar, Indispensable Nations for the US

The world knows by now that the US is disengaging from its traditional leading role. The withdrawal from Iraq, Afghanistan, the South China Sea, and even from the Moon has been a dramatic and logical consequence of the policy change.

Even during the Arab Spring, Washington was only “leading from behind”, according to official speak. Dealing with the Syrian upraising and the use of weapons of mass destruction, the US drew a Red Line. Noticed by everyone is the fact that the line was crossed with no consequences, underlining that the warning was a mere suggestion. And no one else jumped into the traditional US role.

International politics though don’t allow for a vacuum to exist. I watched with great interest that void being filled, not by China and Iran, but by Qatar and Luxembourg. Those are two small countries. So are they working it all alone, or are they led from behind too?

Qatar is not only a home away from home for US Forces in the Gulf, though potentially with no role to play in a disengaged world. But Qatar was instrumental to broker a deal between the US and the Taliban, where a US captive soldier was exchanged against five Taliban leaders held at Guantanamo Bay. That role was facilitated because Qatar tends to play on both sides of the street. With the US as a base, and also against US interests as a supporter of Islamist causes: the Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas and even Sunni interests.

Luxembourg on the other hand is a close ally of Qatar, with many Qatari financial interests in Luxembourg such as Banque Internationale (BIL) or Kredietbank (KBL) bought by a Qatari “Sovereign Fund”. Is that a coincidence or consolidation of a team by design from behind? Luxembourg was also a first candidate to accept Gitmo prisoners in Luxembourg. It never happened, but that’s the art of diplomacy, to take the merits first and then bail out on the promise. Cinthia Stroum, then US Ambassador to Luxembourg even cabled to DC:  “To Hell and Back: Gitmo ex-detainee stumps in Luxembourg”, about Moazzam Begg, who finally didn’t stay there.

But Luxembourg’s helpful hidden role came almost to the open last week. Luxembourg doesn’t put boots on the ground. But it did put diplomatic Bruno Magli slippers on Iranian soil, when Luxembourg’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Jean Asselborn attended the 25^th anniversary commemorating Ayatollah Khomeini’s death.

I wonder if the US leading from behind hasn’t pulled a master stroke. Luxembourg and Qatar, reliably executing a US plan to reverse traditional alliances in the Middle East, has Iran beating up the jihadists in Iraq, as they made the mistake to venture into more classical warfare as an organized force, which makes them an easier target for destruction. The US, Iran and Syria then have effectively switched sides becoming allies for the purpose of US isolationism. And then starts the next chapter, splitting up Iraq. But besides Turkey and Israel, who cares?

Final word: this is just a demonstration ad absurbum that the new world order is a mess. If you take my predictions seriously, you might be wrong. Scarier is the possibility that you might be right.