Russia’s Group Wagner Rebellion: Wallenstein’s Camp in Rostov-on-Don

 

Orchid Miss Calculation

Russia’s Group Wagner Rebellion: Wallenstein’s Camp in Rostov-on-Don

There is a compelling parallel between a medieval historic figure, Albrecht von Wallenstein, and Yevgeny Prigozhin, the owner of the private Russian mercenary army, Group Wagner.

In the early 17^th century, during the Thirty Years’ War, Albrecht von Wallenstein had assembled a private army of twenty thousand and eventually forty thousand mercenaries to intervene in the various conflicts in the interest of Emperor Ferdinand II of the Holy Roman Empire. Wallenstein, who over time became very powerful, conspired against the emperor. He would soon be assassinated on the orders of the emperor.

The Wagner Group has its similarities with Wallenstein’s army of mercenaries. Yevgeny Prigozhin here is Wallenstein’s alter ego. Group Wagner is a sort of hybrid military force: not officially Russian, but no doubt activated by the Kremlin, beyond the margins of the Geneva conventions on war. The Group intervenes in undeclared wars or “special operations” in the Ukraine, in Syria, and in several African countries. If the Group has a military success, it is a Russian success. If not, the Kremlin has plausible denial that Russia is not involved and that the Group is a private security force.

But just as in medieval times, private armies could get a life of their own. And so it happened that the modern Russian interpretation of the medieval predecessor defied the emperor in Moscow. The mutiny ended up in a negotiated deal. Yevgeny Prigozhin goes into exile, and his men were forgiven their rebellion and treason charges. Prigozhin’s whereabouts are unknown.  

Miscalculations have their consequences. Wallenstein and Prigozhin know by now. About to learn is Vladimir Putin himself. The “Special Military Operation” in Ukraine has been a huge miscalculation that sooner or later will have lasting consequences. Putin believed in the standard military procedures as they were developed at the time of the Soviet Union. Here is how those procedures would have made a three dayaffair of the Russian aggression. NATO had to deal with the possibility that Soviet military planning could be accurate: a Soviet attack on Western Europe assumed Warsaw Pact forces reaching Western France in 8 days. Crossing Belarus would put Kyiv at 150 km. A 48-hour operation with a combined air assault. That’s what the old Soviet field manuals said. That’s also what the propaganda said.

Now we know NATO was over prepared at the time of the Soviet Union, Russian classical armed forces don’t match their calculations. Except for its nuclear arsenal, Russia no longer is a superpower. China has to re-evaluate its support. And if there is a second collapse down the road, some in Beijing might want to have a look at the Asian parts of Russia. I have met a prominent member of MSS, the Chinese equivalent of the CIA. He oversees septentrional Siberia. Start dreaming?