Tuesday, May 7, 2013

Cargolux having a lift



     My Orchids. Photo ET


Cargolux having a lift

Cargolux has been on autopilot recently. Not that the ride wasn't choppy, but at least there wasn't too much of negative interference from the still unexplained deal with Qatar airways. The Luxembourg government had the Parliament vote themselves a shocking exemption from scrutiny and answering questions.

Employees saved the day

Where we are today can be credited to a large part to a groundswell  coming from Cargolux' employees. CV today is better off than a year ago. It led to a reversal of the QR mistake and some handyman work around shareholders and Board. It all looks quite preliminary, waiting for the real thing to happen. That real thing seems to be the priority for some: find a "strategic partner", possibly for the self-centered reasons that some shareholder wants to get out of there. (We saw that with BIP before). So here is what is on the table:

The unbelievable agreement with QR was reversed, thanks to the wisdom of  ... Cargolux employees. $117.5 were returned by QR, however the lasting damage that was done to Cargolux in that abusive and imposed marriage was not repaired, the loss of clients to QR and the disclosure of Cargolux' insider knowledge. It is not sure if collateral advantages for QR were cancelled also, e.g. the use of Luxembourg sovereign rights that came with the agreement.

The shareholders are challenged

The remaining shareholders had to jump in for a capital increase. Virtually all shareholders  by now are government controlled. A situation that generally would not be desirable, because it reeks of governmental corporatism. However given the strategic value of Cargolux activities at the Luxembourg airport, its direct impact on Luxair and the airport as whole, there is no other option than to keep it flying. It cannot escape government ownership and oversight. Which  is now under the helm of Paul Helminger who seems to be Luxembourg's man, not Qatar's. He knows Cargolux from his career and negotiating landing rights and has been hardened by the ups and downs of Computerland established at the airport, and which he managed during its presence in Luxembourg.

Then there is the question of a new CEO. The fact that there isn't one speaks highly of the potential Cargolux has. On autopilot, 2012 results were much better than forecast. True there is a loss, but half the forecast. Imagine how much a motivating CEO could have contributed. There is Mr. Forson of course as an interim. That is difficult for two reasons. As a recognized favorite of Qatar, there is that lingering image haunting him. In other major airlines, he would have been probably walked out the door by security the day of the breakup with QR, because of his perceived allegiance to QR. That has not happened, and he has shown his usefulness to the Board, mostly by denouncing the CWA. That's pretty much unusual in Luxembourg, and one kamikaze was needed to get the blame and hide that in fact the one who killed the CWA was the Luxembourg government, through its handpicked Board.

The next steps

Which brings us to the urgency (or not) to sell government owned shares to a strategic partner. Though normally allergic to government involvement, I see no reason to hurry up. First of all, CV is better off than a year ago. I would also fight and possibly ignore any objection from instances such as the European Commission. In a Europe where all rules are bent when it comes to budgetary deficits and where other coercions are put up, Luxembourg should have a free hand to save an essential tool of its infrastructure and the key policy of pursuing logistics as a future. The absurdity of the European limitations on the freedom of the Luxembourg government to act is shown by the fact that Qatar, or a Sovereign Fund which is basically the same owner, can without any problem own 90% of BIL and 100% of KBL. If worse comes to worse, just create a Luxembourg Sovereign Fund, with some competent management, and let that one own the shares. Actually, that Fund should have been created years and years ago when times were so good, instead of buying votes.

As for government ownership, I would plead for a restructuring of the company's setup. For reasons of guaranteeing future Luxembourg control, for strategic reasons, I would suggest a structure similar to the one underlying SES. At the time SES was set up so to keep control in the Luxembourg government's hands even as a minority shareholder, because the company was built on the sovereign right to claim orbital positions and register frequencies, another strategic issue. It still remains a problem whom to choose as a "strategic partner". Hopefully the QR experience has taught people how damaging a strategic partner can be.

Get some vision

Last but not least is, drop the ill advised decision to denounce the CWA. First of all, management is not in a position of power. It has messed up Cargolux with extremely bad and incompetent decisions over the last years. Should we list up again the costly fines for management's criminal behavior of price fixing? Isn't it ironic that the Luxembourg government not only is one of the losing shareholders, did not sanction anyone, but still bends over backwards to obtain an early release for those convicted and incarcerated in the US? All the while kneeling on the employees' interests by canceling the CWA? What about that brilliant move that was to bring new clients and new routes  to Cargolux by selling a critical stake to the lowest bidder, QR? Really, there is nothing else to say than sorry for what we did to the company.

Then as reasonable people sit around a table and settle this. If I were an employee, I would not expect anyone asking me to make a concession, if it is not based on reciprocity. Sacrifices? Yes, but not  without compensation in the future, sharing profits. Without dealing fairly with employees' emotions, no great results can be achieved. So 2012 wasn't so bad under stress? Or was it flawed previsions? Imagine what a really motivated team could have achieved.  Knowing that fuel costs will be the substantial part of costs, and that as of this moment they tend to be lower, this might have the biggest impact on writing black numbers by the end of the year. Though hope is not a strategy.

The challenge lies squarely with management, as at the professional level, Cargolux seems to get by, even after de-motivating employees. There have now to be people showing direction, get back to the well known flexibility and the possibility to shift capacities around on a moment's notice and positioning beautiful assets and crews worldwide so to optimize results. You name it, we fly it, when you need it.

Didn't Oliver Wyman espouse the one type of aircraft lately?



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