Monday, July 14, 2014

Luc Frieden to join Deutsche Bank as Vice Chairman

















My Orchids. Oncidium "Rotating Doors". Photo ET

A Press release by Deutsche Bank. The fact that a member of Parliament, former Minister of Finance, Governor of the World Bank drops his political tools to join a bank is subject of some controversy in his native Luxembourg. We'll assemble what generally the problem is with this type of Revolving Doors practice.

Luc Frieden to join Deutsche Bank as Vice Chairman

Deutsche Bank announced today that Luc Frieden (50) will join as Vice Chairman effective 15 September 2014. In his new role, Frieden will advise the Management Board and senior management on strategic aspects related to international and European affairs. Frieden will also work with the Bank’s Government & Regulatory Affairs department and other infrastructure functions and business units.

Frieden will be based in London and report to Stephan Leithner, Member of the Management Board, whose functional responsibilities include Europe and Government & Regulatory Affairs.

Leithner said: “We are pleased that Luc Frieden will join Deutsche Bank as Vice Chairman. He brings a wealth of experience in governmental affairs and international finance. His expertise and advice will be of great benefit for the Bank and its clients.”

From 1998 to 2013, Frieden served as a member of the Luxembourg government, including as Minister of Justice, Minister of Treasury and Minister of Finance. In 2005, Frieden chaired the European Council of Ministers of Justice and Home Affairs. For the last five years, he represented Luxembourg at the European Council of Ministers of Finance (ECOFIN and Eurogroup) and participated in the stabilization of the Eurozone and the shaping of the European banking union. He worked with leaders of international organizations and banks. A long time Governor of the World Bank, Frieden served as Chairman of the Board of Governors of the IMF and the World Bank Group in 2013. 

Frieden graduated in law from the University of Paris (Panthéon-Sorbonne), the University of Cambridge and Harvard Law School.  


For further information, please call: 

Deutsche Bank AG    
Press Relations    

Regina Schüller    
Phone: +49 69 910 44032   
E-Mail: regina.schueller@db.com  

Armin Niedermeier
Phone: +49 69 910 33402
E-mail: armin.niedermeier@db.com




Friday, July 11, 2014

Voice of Russia: Crimea is de-facto not part of Ukraine – Luxembourg FM

















My Orchids. Oncidium "The Dance of the Diplomats". Photo ET


Now we know who really pulls those big ropes behind the scenes, and also on the stage of the UN Security Council: Luxembourg is reshaping the world map. In concert of course with the other indispensable nation, Qatar.

So Russia annexes Crimea, but we won’t recognize the annexation. However we proclaim in the strongest terms that Crimea is de facto not part of the Ukraine? Oh, I understand the playbook from 1939: Peace has been saved until 2024. Then we discuss maybe if Crimea as a part of Russia is a part of Russia. From here on we could use the unparalleled negotiation skills of our new-found good friends in Iran to bring the US and Russia together. And by the way, the invasion of Irak and Tony Blair: Bad. The invasion of Crimea: must be good by contrast.

Now there are many more international problems to tackle. My suggested to-do list (without wanting to start a WW III) for Luxembourg’s Foreign Minister Jean Asselborn:

  • The Falklands are part of Argentina
  • The Malvinas are part of the UK
  • China is part of Tibet
  • Tibet owns the Spratly Islands
  • Kashmir I don’t know, let me check the map, but there is something
  • Cyprus is … let’s ask an Ayatollah
  • Québec is only de facto part of Canada
  • Guatemala, Honduras, Costa Rica, Salvador, and Nicaragua are de facto part of the US
  • Thionville, Arlon, and Bitburg are de facto part of Luxembourg.
  • Let’s talk a bit more about Flanders, Wallonia, Corsica, South Soudan, East Prussia, Macedonia, Gaza, Trieste, and the Pitcairn Island.





Thursday, July 10, 2014

Cargolux: the Italian Sideshow



































My Orchids: Phalaenopsis "Italia Nana". Photo ET

Cargolux: the Italian Sideshow

“The Loadster” reported about a shift of pilots to cheaper Italy:


That happens amidst a general hiring freeze at Cargolux. There needs to be some explaining, as some other labor relations problems are unresolved.

All this is happening on the background of the new partnership with HNCA, limping along, after a spectacular failed start of the first flight to Zhengzhou in April, and the Robert Song episode. As finally those flights have been initiated in June, they are most likely to be losing operations for the foreseeable future, as finding freight to be sent to Zhengzhou is a questionable bet and flights to there will have poor load factors.


This will add to the losses already incurred in the first half of 2014, said to be in the vicinity of $31 million. (A loss of about $14 million was expected). I would call it Melusina’s revenge, for the fault of not retaining the former members of ExCom earlier this year. A company is as good as its management.



Sunday, July 6, 2014

Cargolux in the new morning calm

















My Orchids. Phalaneopsis "Dual Hub". Photo ET

Cargolux in the new morning calm

If Cargolux flights were as silent as Cargolux management nowadays, and indeed the Luxembourg government, there would be no night curfew for CV flights at the Luxembourg airport. The silence must be golden like the Ming Dynasty, as it coincides with coming onboard of a Chinese partner. But it might be only circumstance that silence started cushioning Cargolux since the official date when on April 23rd  Henan Civil Aviation and Investment Co. Ltd (HNCA) took a 35% ownership in Cargolux Airlines.

That silence appears to be more of a Darwinian self-protection evolution: a leadership prone to monumental errors strives to embrace secrecy as a hiding mechanism. After the Qatar Airways fiasco, it repeated its misjudgments with HNCA, basically copy-cutting past errors. The HNCA solution was imposed almost surreptitiously, and against the advice of most of Cargolux’ senior managers. The company (and the Government) made a bad deal, which still has unforeseeable consequences. Fact is that out of protest, the COO Peter van de Pas, SVP Marketing and Sales Robert van de Weg, and the Regional Manager for Asia, Matthew Ma left. Board and government treated their resignations with benign neglect. Both don’t understand that a company is defined by its management team. Managers are not exchangeable at wish in the competitive world. Only in nepotism.

An early sign of the misguided reorganization was the fall-out around Robert Song, bombarded SVP Asia and Pacific as a reward for his contribution to the deal it seems. He fell ill just on the occasion of Chairman Helminger’s visit to Zhengzhou, and of course we learnt without surprise that Robert Song had resigned. That was the end of most communication. In the meantime another negligence had been corrected by finally appointing a new CEO, Dirk Reich. The post had been vacant for way too long. Clients, competitors and observers have watched sometimes in disbelief the ongoing turmoil at Cargolux, a series of self-inflicted wounds.

Cargolux has been for many years a proud Luxembourg achievement, a leader in the industry, a benchmark for the air freight industry. With key management lost, there goes the substance of the company’s culture and reputation. The episode of relying on Mr. Song, then seeing him “resigning” seems to be more of a panicky reaction to forwarders’ displeasure with the changes in management, as reported by Cargofacts.com. It is morning again at Cargolux, though a new beginning that was unnecessary, and that morning was not calm. Only silent.

Obviously we now have a new Cargolux where the known unknowns are unknown. What is known is that the “old” Cargolux managed to have an encouraging though modest turnaround. 2013 will be the benchmark to compare future results. Whereas a loss was predicted, the old Cargolux managed to run a profit of $8.4 million in 2013, up from a loss of$35.1 million in 2012, the year of the Qatar Airways adventure. Revenue for the year was up 14.4% to $1.99 billion, driven by increasing demand. Cargo traffic for the year was up 19.2% to 5.72 billion RTKs, while cargo volume rose 16.7% to 754,000 tons. Despite the encouraging progress, the $8.4 million is a very thin margin that leaves no space for errors. However, now starts an ill-defined, unknown future. And yet facing the unknowns, Cargolux chose to change several variables at the same time, basically an unscientific approach, resulting in massive changes in management, in a confused workforce, in a partnership with questionable revenues and expensive obligations, and worse, questions about the company in the marketplace.

The best known unknown is of course the partnership with HNCA. Luxembourg officials are fascinated by the new vocabulary such as “dual hub”. Which it is not. There is no dual hub that would imply some privileges for Cargolux. That’s the case for the main freight available FROM Zhengzhou, electronics, where Cargolux has no priority as we have seen from various competing arrangements that HNCA or Zhengzhou Airport initiated. Those reach from Hahn to Liège airports, and Cargolux didn’t even know about those arrangements. In the absence of a monopoly, what was the point of entering into the HNCA agreement?

Now Cargolux has learnt already how to dance to the new Chinese music. Its inaugural flight was cancelled because of an unknown “administrative” reason, all the while the Luxembourg Minister of Transportation was waiting in great pomp for the newly baptized “City of Zhengzhou” to touch down at Zhengzhou Airport. 

It was a vivid demonstration of the realities in the new dual hub environment. A known unknown is also what the heck Cargolux is going to carry as cargo on four weekly flights TO Zhengzhou? A dual hub means there is something to do both ways. There doesn’t seem to be much to carry to Zhengzhou. The fact that there is a $15 million budget set up to compensate Cargolux for losses on the route, is only the known official acknowledgement of the unknowns. The first two quarter results will not yet show the full impact of the new partnership, but show a direction. That is if Silence doesn’t prevent us from learning the results.

If I understand the results of a recent effort to survey Cargolux staff, we are going to have open communications again. Indeed the “potential components of the revitalized Cargolux spirit” are clear, according to those who answered the survey. Only about 1 out of 3 answered, the motivated employees I guess. The remaining two have indeed to be revitalized. As for the key components, 2 out of 3 respondents see leadership as a problem: they appear to be distant, biased, and aloof. It is followed by poor communication: no or poor information on strategies, objectives, financial situation. All this is summarized by the most important component coming in third: respect.


For anyone misjudging employees’ preoccupations, please note that they do not care for the environment nor for diversity. Those two components came in last. Though politically they sound nice in conjunction with dual hub. However employees long for a bright future of their company. Who would have guessed!?



Friday, July 4, 2014

Le Tour de France 2014


















My Orchids. Phalaneopsis " Maillot Jaune". Photo ET

Le Tour de France 2014

The Tour is about to start. Not sure if British traffic rules apply, which would put last year's champion Froome at an advantage. Anyway Le Tour starts again from Afar.

My Luxembourg roots would normally have me getting excited about the Schleck brothers. Obviously less than in past years, as the two brothers had their ups and downs. Their team is not really the Schleck team, and their ambitions that they publicly confirmed, are also modest. That being said, it is a long way to Paris and to Tipperary. Anything can happen, and a former talent can possibly be reborn. At which time, if opportunity strikes, one of the Schlecks could graduate from helper to leader. For those who want to wave the Luxembourg Lion in the French Cols, there is a third Luxembourg iron in the fire, young Ben Gastauer.

Who will win the Tour? I bet on Alberto Contador. He is the ideal mountain climber, strong on time trials (see second last stage over 54 km), and for the not too glorious past, he has learned how not to eat doped Spanish beef. He won't make that mistake anymore.

In the US, watch it happen on NBC Sports, or the colorful French TV5.

Wednesday, June 18, 2014

Is Luxembourg a Judicial Haven?




































My Orchids. Phalaneopsis. Not yet Branded. Photo ET

Is Luxembourg a Judicial Haven?
Memorandum to the Minister of Justice

Everyone knows that the Luxembourg Justice is unacceptably slow to the point of not really delivering justice. "Justice delayed is justice denied," says the proverb. It has been criticized also for its softness in general, and its ways and its gentleness towards Finance. The aggrieved investor (especially from abroad) learns it the hard way: you cannot win against the Bank in Luxembourg! And criminal penalties are so moderate that financial crime may be worth the try, and is a good investment. But the Luxembourg public tends to look away, as the general thinking is, that the justice system will never be one of their concerns. Court cases only happen to someone else. Yet this serious failing of the Luxembourg judicial system affects all of us, by the perverse effects it will simply have on the standard of living of all Luxembourgers.

When the financial center does well, everybody does well

Today Luxembourg is a gift of Finance, as Egypt is a gift of the Nile, to paraphrase a wise old man. The financial sector is critical to the living standards of Luxembourg. It represents about 38% of GDP, 25% of state revenue (our commission if I may), and occupies 63,000 people directly and indirectly. It owes its growth since the '70s largely to its reputation to accommodate tax evasion. Fortunately financial services have diversified beyond aid to organized tax evasion, which is nearing its end due to policy changes. Already the center barely pays for our standard of living. New financial services are not sufficient yet to compensate for the shortfall from the loss and extinction of the tax haven scheduled for 1 January 2015. But Luxembourg's international acceptability is back, thanks to the implementation of the automatic exchange of tax information, imposed on us from abroad. This new found respectability comes with an important price, the loss of the golden tax niche, hence income for the State. Most revealing of those shortcomings is the sudden increase of the public debt of € 12.5 billion.

Looking at this from the angle of the loss of tax revenue, it will be a serious mistake not to address the threat represented by the judicial (and regulatory) haven, the twin brother of the tax haven. This brother however is a self-inflicted wound, causing much damage without providing a single benefit to Luxembourg. It will chase away the honest customer and it already attracts the fraudster. Soon it will also be in the cross fire of the international community. Many initiatives bearing down on judicial or regulatory excesses and shortcomings internationally are originating from the  U.S. Congress, and for sure it has all ready to go texts about "judicial havens" in its  drawers. The impunity of criminal activity, the arrogance and immunity of financial institutions by word of mouth will scare the investors and embolden criminals. The way zero taxation once attracted investors worldwide, the negative connotation of the judicial haven makes them flee, ruins a reputation, and thereby inevitably revenues. But scammers take note of this new country of opportunity.

Madoff, Landsbanki, BCCI and 1,500 others

At the automn 2011 reception for the return of the judicial corps, after yet another endless 2 months summer vacation, the Attorney General Robert Biever confirmed what all criminals and their victims know: Luxembourg is a judicial haven, because Justice does not have the resources to accomplish its mission. (Nor the time left between 2 vacations). According to the Attorney General, particularly when it comes to financial crimes and money laundering, 1,500 cases have been classified and shelved due to the lack of resources from 1990-2011! Worse, the Luxembourg government is regularly sentenced as a recidivist by the European Court of Human Rights for failing to provide  justice within a reasonable time.

What conclusions can you draw from these facts, you, the thousands of victims of the Luxembourg fortress and its fraudsters such as Madoff, Landsbanki, BCCI also called "Bank of Crooks and Criminals"? Well, you're not out of the woods yet. For the first victims, whose story only started 5-6 years ago, be prepared to wait a few more years. Yes, years. I have a case that has lasted 10 years already and no end is in sight. Maybe 13 years is a realistic expectation? You now know that your rights are violated by a recidivist government. At the end maybe you will also learn that the Bank or Madoff's underlings and purveyors, will get reduced sentences due to the slowness of the Luxembourg courts, or worse, the cases might just get shelved for lack of resources. In any case, I do not wish you the BCCI treatment. Because that case has been going on for over 20 years. It affects 250,000 former customers in over 70 countries. Those, if they still live, no longer will invest a single penny in Luxembourg.

Luckily for you the victims, you are organized, such as the group of victims of Landsbanki, victims of BCCI, or at the Luxembourg watchdog Protinvest. You have allies such as Judge van Ruymbeke in France or celebrities like Enrico Macias, the famous French singer who lost a fortune in a shaky investment structure. For the time being you have know that in Luxembourg justice is delayed, thus denied, or worse, your case might be shelved for lack of resources and political will. For a financial center, that is a disastrous reputation.

The new government is working on a project of "nation branding". Priority should be to produce a pretty picture of its financial center. The over-used "best kept secret" slogan for Luxembourg no longer can mask the shortcomings and is even counter-intuitive in a world that claims transparency. Nation branding, not a cover-up of ugly circumstances, but rooted in deep reality requires deep reforms in the legal and regulatory system.  

Based on a long career in public service, I would like to see the branding around the concepts of stability, reliability, honesty, transparency and outstanding organization and infrastructure. If we add truthfulness, then we cannot only say those things, but do those things. A Luxembourg member of Parliament, Justin Turpel, just to made a start in addressing this one cancer in Luxembourg politics, the proliferation of directorships among officials and civil servants on the Boards of private companies. I know, for our Anglo-Saxon friends, this is outright corruption. And it is, a system where those officials appear to be the guardians, not of public interest, but the guarantors of general immunity during conflicts of interest, in a system where supervised supervise the supervisors.

As for you, my dear Minister, you're in a lot of luck! You have the unique opportunity to clean the stables, and you get a reputation of a demigod in doing so. And at the same time you save the main industry of the country, the financial center from mafia threats and decline, and you save Luxembourg from the disastrous disappearance of the main source of their living standards: the financial center.


Meanwhile, back to the question in the headline. The answer is a Yes!




Tuesday, June 17, 2014

Luxembourg and Qatar, Indispensable Nations for the US

















My Orchids. Vanda "Morgenland". Photo ET

Luxembourg and Qatar, Indispensable Nations for the US

The world knows by now that the US is disengaging from its traditional leading role. The withdrawal from Iraq, Afghanistan, the South China Sea, and even from the Moon has been a dramatic and logical consequence of the policy change.

Even during the Arab Spring, Washington was only “leading from behind”, according to official speak. Dealing with the Syrian upraising and the use of weapons of mass destruction, the US drew a Red Line. Noticed by everyone is the fact that the line was crossed with no consequences, underlining that the warning was a mere suggestion. And no one else jumped into the traditional US role.

International politics though don’t allow for a vacuum to exist. I watched with great interest that void being filled, not by China and Iran, but by Qatar and Luxembourg. Those are two small countries. So are they working it all alone, or are they led from behind too?

Qatar is not only a home away from home for US Forces in the Gulf, though potentially with no role to play in a disengaged world. But Qatar was instrumental to broker a deal between the US and the Taliban, where a US captive soldier was exchanged against five Taliban leaders held at Guantanamo Bay. That role was facilitated because Qatar tends to play on both sides of the street. With the US as a base, and also against US interests as a supporter of Islamist causes: the Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas and even Sunni interests.

Luxembourg on the other hand is a close ally of Qatar, with many Qatari financial interests in Luxembourg such as Banque Internationale (BIL) or Kredietbank (KBL) bought by a Qatari “Sovereign Fund”. Is that a coincidence or consolidation of a team by design from behind? Luxembourg was also a first candidate to accept Gitmo prisoners in Luxembourg. It never happened, but that’s the art of diplomacy, to take the merits first and then bail out on the promise. Cinthia Stroum, then US Ambassador to Luxembourg even cabled to DC:  “To Hell and Back: Gitmo ex-detainee stumps in Luxembourg”, about Moazzam Begg, who finally didn’t stay there.

But Luxembourg’s helpful hidden role came almost to the open last week. Luxembourg doesn’t put boots on the ground. But it did put diplomatic Bruno Magli slippers on Iranian soil, when Luxembourg’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Jean Asselborn attended the 25th anniversary commemorating Ayatollah Khomeini’s death.

I wonder if the US leading from behind hasn’t pulled a master stroke. Luxembourg and Qatar, reliably executing a US plan to reverse traditional alliances in the Middle East, has Iran beating up the jihadists in Iraq, as they made the mistake to venture into more classical warfare as an organized force, which makes them an easier target for destruction. The US, Iran and Syria then have effectively switched sides becoming allies for the purpose of US isolationism. And then starts the next chapter, splitting up Iraq. But besides Turkey and Israel, who cares?


Final word: this is just a demonstration ad absurbum that the new world order is a mess. If you take my predictions seriously, you might be wrong. Scarier is the possibility that you might be right.