Wednesday, January 29, 2014

Cargolux, a Postmortem













My Orchids. Phalaneopsis. "Hidden Agenda" Photo ET

Cargolux, a Postmortem

We know what happened with the Qatar Airways - Cargolux deal. It just was a mindboggling adventure that in no way was a "good deal", and was miserably negotiated. It would barely have helped Cargolux, but rather to the contrary would have and indeed has hurt Cargolux.

In the aftermath of such an ordeal, any serious company on earth would have licked its wounds, maybe would have apologized even for failing to responsibly lead the company, and would of course have committed itself to take every step possible, so that the same mistake will never be made again. Alas! The same mistake was  made again and in a hurry. Almost no one would have expected this to happen twice. I give up on quoting Einstein on insanity.

I would have expected a thorough evaluation of the company after the QR debacle, very probably the replacement of the CFO brought in by Qatar Airways, not as a sanction, but as cautious good governance. He came from the other side. I would have examined the reasons why and if indeed the Luxembourg government had to get rid of its Cargolux shares, and establish the list of mistakes made in that flawed QR deal: the valuation of the deal, the question of the minority shareholder's veto right, the attractiveness of the various other possible partners.

It appears that none of these has been seriously undertaken. The HNCA deal is justified by general talking points by those who made it happen. There might be good prospects in the particular HNCA deal. But then it would certainly be easy to articulate and demonstrate these. That China is a big country and will offer many possibilities is very general. That other candidates didn't line up, is nonsense. When Mr. Bausch announced he would negotiate for further last minute landing rights in China before traveling to Beijing, he got the Chinese equivalent of Luxembourg's "dann misst een emol kucken". They have to think about it. He travelled to sign the minimal agreement, which he could have done in an environmentally friendly manner by scanning and Emailing, which as we know has a lower carbon footprint.

More generally, the deal has been pushed, though a very respectable law firm, Shearman & Sterling was hired to give their best professional advice: they concluded that the agreement needed a lot of work. Very often governments and companies hire an outside consultant to say loudly, what the client didn't want to say himself. Well, this wasn't the case with Shearman & Sterling. According to an ever growing number of excerpts of leaked correspondence, the opposition to the deal was vast at the management level.

Logically, in such a case you hire another consultant. The very basic strategy is revealed by the emerging details of a damning correspondence reported by Radio 100,7 and also reported by tageblatt. The role of the "informateur" Mr. Schaus is questioned there, for seeming to be of the second type of consultant: the clients megaphone and green light barrier guard. Insiders talk about conflicts of interest, as Mr. Schaus had been suggested as a CEO candidate early on, as he started his role as consultant.

I had high hopes that such an outside consultant would conclude to, and indicate a wider spectrum of options for Cargolux, in the true Bain Capital approach, for which Mr. Schaus worked previously. Options that could have been debated and weighed by management. I have seen a number of brilliant analyses and advice brought together by Bain. This would also have satisfied the neutral observers, which is of course not the case if the only outcome is to confirm the for whatever reasons wishful agenda of the contracting party. In particular this one statement is available on Radio 100,7. It is both a superficial endorsement of the Chinese partnership, with a built-in preemptive excuse for future failure, that is already squarely put on uncooperative management. We succeed: it is the merit of the innovative thinkers. We fail: that's because of the uncooperative Management.

Radio 100,7: " …) There is a broad and remarkable consensus among the vast majority of players (management, board, even trade unions and third parties) that the management team in its current configuration and mode of operation is dysfunctional. This is a serious issue that needs to be addressed as soon as possible and preferably before any entering in relationship with a third party. Similarly, the equity split between the different (Luxembourgish) actors and the composition and mode of operation of the Supervisory Board need to be revisited and reengineered.
If the issues are not addresses successfully, the outlook for the venture will be doubtful in any case. On the other hand, if these issues are tackled, the partnership with HNCA sounds promising. Risks are limited, but much more importantly, this may be the opportunity to give Cargolux a new lease of life and to support it in securing a stable base in Luxembourg based on sustainable global growth."
But wait: what exactly is this to say: ".... the management team in its current configuration and mode of operation is dysfunctional." Did managers want to leave? Did someone want them to leave, as this language may suggest? In any case, responsibility for future failure after their departure lies with those who stay.
A clearer image emerges thanks to the personal details coming out of the trenches. Exposing those tactics on the ground, it is going to reveal the strategic Cargolux agenda in a starker way.
For now one can conclude that by signing the deal, the Luxembourg government has lost its freedom of action, though it might hope that by getting rid of its shares means that the ordeal is over. It is trapped, and there is no way out either of the deal, or future problems.
The Chinese party still has a backdoor open. Beijing has to approve the deal later this year. It should, because HNCA got tremendous advantages, with only some shabby USD of exposure. The Luxembourg side convinces itself that there is hope, that everything they always wanted to ask for from HNCA, but never dared, will eventually come together. But hope is not a strategy.


http://www.100komma7.lu/emissions/2014/01/29/cargolux-zitater-aus-de-breiwer-vun-ex-direktiounsmemberen-an-aus-dem-robert-schaus-rapport/





Luxembourg is outsourcing its Foreign Relations to India




























My Orchids. Phalaneopsis. Vishnu. Photo ET

Luxembourg is outsourcing its Foreign Relations to India

It is of course a World Premiere when a country outsources its Foreign Relations to another country. Usually that happens only if you don't want to talk to certain people in the world. Then you need the Swiss or the Swedes to shuttle between the two sides. Or you want to save money, then the Belgians or the Dutch can represent you. That's Luxembourg's solution. So you might find a drab Belgian or Dutch diplomat sitting in Luxembourg's chair in foreign countries.

That is about to change. We do this right this time. It is a charm offensive, where the new weapon of mass diplomacy is celebrated Indian actress Suhasini Maniratnam. Let a thousand bright lights shine!


Here we go to the news, in particular: "The actress, who took everyone by surprise with her presence in an interactive session with Luxembourg Ambassador Gaston Stronck at a function organised by the Madras Chamber of Commerce and Industry here on Monday, said that she had been shortlisted for promoting the country in India."




Monday, January 27, 2014

Peter van de Pas leaves Cargolux





























My Orchids. Phalaneopsis. Photo ET
Peter van de Pas leaves Cargolux

For completeness sake, but tired of posting these frustrating stories:

Cargolux hits real turbulence, as a domino effect brings down the upper management team. We have a nuclear meltdown otherwise described as the China Syndrome. Peter van de Pas, manager operations and maintenance leaves by the end of March. After the departure of the former CEO who was never replaced, of Robert van de Weg last week, this is the 3rd key manager leaving.

There is no way sweet talking such a disaster. It is the result of an ill defined strategy, and a disastrous execution of that ill defined strategy. Hey, I could see that from here.

"Et war keen !" A Luxembourg old saying that means: nobody is responsible. 



Sunday, January 26, 2014

Luxembourg's number of Monetary Financial Institutions was decreasing in 2013

































My Orchids. Cattleya Brassavola nodos. "Dama de la noche". Photo ET

Luxembourg's number of Monetary Financial Institutions 
was decreasing in 2013


Over the year 2013 the Eurozone lost 269 monetary financial institutions (MFI), down to 6,790.

Luxembourg lost 70 according to the ECB.

Since 1999, the Eurozone lost 31% or 3,066 institutions, despite a succession of new members.

Total EU decrease in 2013 was 330 institutions, down to 8,746 MFIs.

Since 1999, the EU lost 2,163 MFIs, despite the addition of 1,608 MFIs from new member states.


If the number of institutions is shrinking, are there some getting bigger and bigger and too big to fail?



Friday, January 24, 2014

Luxembourg's Clearstream Banking S.A. fined $152 million in the US





















My Orchids. Phalaneopsis "Scheherazade", Photo ET


US Treasury fines Luxembourg Firm for Skirting Iran Sanctions (Miami Herald)

Clearstream Banking S.A. settled with the US Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) over the allegations to have violated US Iran sanctions regulations. According to the Miami Herald: 
" Clearsteram provided the Government of Iran with substantial and unautherized access to the US financial system", OFAC Director Adam J. Szubin said in a statement.

Clearstream Banking will pay $152 million in a settlement according to the linked settlement agreement.



Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/2014/01/23/3888448/treasury-fines-luxembourg-firm.html#storylink=cpy


Cargoforwarder: Robert Quits Cargolux
































My Orchids. Vanda. "Bonjour Tristesse". Photo ET


Cargoforwarders' report sounds like the medical report of what I called the "Chinese Syndrom".

This is the alarming quote in that report: " Robert is the first to quit, others might follow. His step clearly shows that there is widespread discontent with the Luxembourg government's decision to sell 35 percent state-held shares in Cargolux to the Chinese investor."

Losing the key architect of CV's sales is a serious problem. Without growing sales, no value is added. It is almost ironical that at the same time CV advertises that it is hiring a new CEO. Finally, but what about timing !? Any serious candidate knows now what is going on. So one can only find a kamikaze. You know those pilots who crash their aircraft on the target.

Now even that is not funny. It is perplexing how the new government just took over a lame duck solution from the former government, which did not earn the prize of the best negotiator of all times. Political expediency has won over talent and expertise.


An old friend of mine, Rene Anselmo, founder of PanamSat crafted his company's slogan on that subject: "Truth and technology will prevail over BS and bureaucracy". Well said. But in this case it is the contrary.



Thursday, January 23, 2014

Is a resignation at Cargolux a Chinese Syndrom?
















My Orchids. Phalaneopsis. Photo ET

Is a resignation at Cargolux a Chinese Syndrom?

It is a disaster to loose one of the best. Make an offer he cannot refuse!











Wednesday, January 15, 2014

Cargolux in Xinhua


My Orchids. Henan Beauty. Photo ET

Cargolux in Xinhua

The quintessential of the story. But what is done is done.

Wednesday, January 15, 2014, 20:36
China firm, Europe's largest cargo airline tie up
By Xinhua

ZHENGZHOU - A company in central China's Henan Province has invested in Luxembourg's Cargolux Airlines International to introduce a new freight service between China and Europe, local authorities announced on Wednesday.
Henan Civil Aviation Development & Investment Co. Ltd purchased 35 percent of the stocks in Cargolux.
Francois Bausch, head of Luxembourg's department of sustainable development and primary industries, signed an equity acquisition agreement with a representative of the company, after his meeting with Xie Fuzhan, governor of Henan, on Tuesday.
According to the agreement, Cargolux will open a new freight service route between Zhengzhou City in Henan and Luxembourg, and build an air cargo network that links Asia and Europe.
Cargolux Airlines International is the largest cargo airline in Europe, and the ninth largest in the world.

Tuesday, January 14, 2014

Breaking news: no additional landing rights for Cargolux in China. Maybe later.














My Orchids. Oncidium. "Promises" Photo ET

Breaking news: no additional landing rights for Cargolux in China. Maybe later.

The official Communiqué before Minister Bausch's trip to China let me believe that there would be finally a good chance for him to come back with additional landing rights for CV, as a compensation for the lopsided Cargolux agreement. This is what was said.

"À Pékin, le 13 janvier, le ministre rencontrera Xia Xinghua, vice-ministre de la CAAC (Administration de l’aviation civile sous l’autorité du ministère des Transports chinois), afin d’aborder le sujet des droits de trafic aérien additionnels. En effet, une des nécessités pour développer les marchés de croissance que sont la Chine, voire l’Asie en général, est de disposer des droits de trafic adéquats." 

Knowing from experience, and looking at the past and the present players, I allowed myself to be somewhat sceptical in a recent blog:

There was some progress I would say in Fire, Aim, Ready: there will be last minute "negotiations " about additional landing rights. But the signature of the agreement will take place anyway the following day. Let me divulge a secret. There is no leverage in last minute negotiations. Hopefully though, it will be compensated by good will.

I scrutinized Xinhua in vain, I couldn't find evidence that Mr. Bausch had defeated the Dragon. Worse, Luxemburger Wort quoted him this way:

"Wenn die Partnerschaft der Cargolux mit HNCA in Kraft getreten ist, hat Cargolux beste Aussichten auf weitere Landerechte in China. Dies sei ihm nochmals versichtert worden, so François Bausch in China."


Really!?



Sorry Sweden, Luxembourg is now the most generous country in the world














My Orchids. Phalaneopsis. The Brightest. Photo ET


We are the best. Again. We hit 1% of GNP in international development aid. Sweden 0.97%, Netherlands 0.71%, UK 0.56%, Belgium 0.47%, Germany 0.37%, Austria 0.28%, US 0.19%.

The official (voluntary) target for donors is 0.70% (United Nations Millennium Program).

Maybe I dare making three comments:

1. These programs have been going on for more than 50 years. Is there any audit of the resultats?

2. The OECD concedes that these programs are far from being efficient. One example is Norway. " The OECD suggested Norway could, though, improve its allocation of resources as it focuses on global issues “that are important for the country and the international role it plays” within, for example, peace-building, climate change and global health. The best known target in international aid proposes to raise official development assistance  (ODA) to 0.7% of donors' national income." Is there any audit on fraud?  

3. This is the more tricky part. Zealots will yell at this: why do we do this aid to this extent? To overcompensate for being called a tax haven? I would argue this should be reduced for three reasons:

- 15%, that's the number of Luxembourg people living below the poverty line, and should not get their benefits cut to subsidize the rest of the world

- The official goal of 0.7% of GNP would reduce the cost of this aid (not always efficient and often  not clean) program from roughly 450 to 315 million Euros, a savings of 135 million.

- And last but not least, public Luxembourg debt, an unknown phenomenon until recently, is creeping up and supposed to cap at 30% of GDP. Just this week Luxembourg decided sales tax increases (hurting the poor), to cope with future losses of the "tax haven", that no longer is. Talking about the poor in Luxembourg, their "national income" is their net minus their debt. If the government would be thinking that way, its national net income would be 70% of GNP only. And you could argue that the target of 0.7% would not only be reached at 315 million, but at an additional reduction of 30% representing the share of outstanding debt, for a final 220 million. Total savings: Euros 230 million.
While Luxembourg must urgently seek to reduce its spending by 1.5 billion, there is a discussion to have had, that political correctness will make difficult to have.



Sunday, January 12, 2014

The devil wears Prada and is in the details of tax avoidance



































My Orchids. Phalaneopsis Fashion. Photo ET

The devil wears Prada and is in the details of tax avoidance

After Dolce & Gabbana it is Prada's turn to get clobbered by the Italian tax man, or is it a woman?

Remember Domenico Dolce and Stefano Gabbana? They sold their brand to a Luxembourg company they owned, which allowed for important tax savings. A setup most certainly advised by a significant and credible tax advisor. But when two jurisdictions collide, it is tax avoidance vs. tax evasion. The Italian side won in Italy. Both Dolce and Gabbana got fined about $440 million and sentenced to prison terms. The difference between tax avoidance and tax evasion? One year and 8 months.

Next on the list of the now confident tax scrutinizers is said to be, according toForbes, Prada, for a similar structure in Luxembourg. As so often in tax avoidance, the devil is in the detail, and the Italian prosecutors, who must wear Prada, are emboldened by their earlier success and claim of tax evasion against Dolce&Gabbana. In Prada's case they see about $650 million missing. They could have used the money to prosecute more fashion houses. But then, what are we going to wear?


Here is an obvious homework to do for the Luxembourg government: you had no chance here to plead tax avoidance, and defend the legitimacy of the Luxembourg structure. It was an Italian thing. Objectively, it is also a denunciation of the Luxembourg financial center and its practices. I'm all for combating tax evasion. The Luxembourg challenge is to look deeply into this, and determine how these Italian prosecutions might violate European law. And endanger the Luxembourg financial center, and others.



Friday, January 10, 2014

Cargolux: Alea jacta est, 成炊















My Orchids. Oncidium. Bonjour Tristesse. Photo ET

Cargolux: Alea jacta est, 成炊

The Sustainability Minister about to cross the Rubicon
可持續發展部長關於穿越盧比肯

There was some progress I would say in Fire, Aim, Ready: there will be last minute "negotiations " about additional landing rights. But the signature of the agreement will take place anyway the following day. Let me divulge a secret. There is no leverage in last minute negotiations. Hopefully though, it will be compensated by good will.

Here, let's make it official:

Visite de travail de François Bausch en Chine (12-15.01.2014)
Le 14 janvier sera signée la documentation contractuelle entre l’État luxembourgeois et le groupe HNCA en vue de la reprise des 35% de parts de Cargolux S.A. 
Communiqué – Publié le 10.01.2014 (13:06)

Le 12 janvier 2014, François Bausch, ministre du Développement durable et des Infrastructures, se rendra en Chine, pour y avoir différentes entrevues avec des responsables politiques et des acteurs économiques à Pékin ainsi qu’à Zhengzhou, capitale de la province centrale de Henan.
À Pékin, le 13 janvier, le ministre rencontrera Xia Xinghua, vice-ministre de la CAAC (Administration de l’aviation civile sous l’autorité du ministère des Transports chinois), afin d’aborder le sujet des droits de trafic aérien additionnels. En effet, une des nécessités pour développer les marchés de croissance que sont la Chine, voire l’Asie en général, est de disposer des droits de trafic adéquats. 
Lors de la deuxième étape du voyage, le 14 janvier, la délégation ministérielle sera reçue à Zhengzhou par Guo Gengmao, secrétaire du Parti communiste chinois de Henan, par Xie Fuzhan, gouverneur de la province de Henan, ainsi que par Zhao Jiancai, vice-gouverneur de la province de Henan. Les discussions porteront essentiellement sur la collaboration future entre l’État luxembourgeois et la province de Henan dans le cadre de l’acquisition des parts Cargolux. 
La journée se terminera avec la signature de la documentation contractuelle entre l’État luxembourgeois et le groupe HNCA en vue de la reprise des 35% de parts de Cargolux S.A. L’accord prévoit notamment le développement d’une "dual hub strategy", donc le développement d’une part d’un hub logistique européen à l’aéroport de Luxembourg, et d’autre part, d’un projet pilote d’un hub logistique chinois à l’aéroport de Zhengzhou. Dans un premier temps, Cargolux effectuera quatre vols hebdomadaires vers cette destination. 
Le 15 janvier 2014, en fin de séjour, François Bausch visitera consécutivement diverses zones économiques en plein développement près de Zhengzhou, notamment le district de Zhengdong et la zone économique de l’aéroport de Zhengzhou, y inclus les infrastructures aéroportuaires. 
La province de Henan se situe au Centre-Est de la Chine et comprend une population de plus de 100 millions d’habitants avec une superficie supérieure à quelque 167.000 km2. Zhengzhou  est une ville de plus de 8 millions d’habitants et capitale de la province de Henan et a été désignée en mars 2013 par le gouvernement central de Pékin comme première zone économique expérimentale en matière d’économie aéroportuaire. 
HNCA (Henan Civil Aviation Development and Investment Company) est un bras d’investissement du gouvernement de la province de Henan orienté vers des projets d’infrastructure dans l’aviation et le secteur logistique. 
Lors de cette visite, la délégation luxembourgeoise se composera de représentants du ministère du Développement durable et des Infrastructures, du ministère de l’Économie, du ministère des Affaires étrangères et européennes, de la Direction de l’aviation civile et de Cargolux S.A. 
Communiqué par le ministère du Développement durable et des Infrastructures

Monday, January 6, 2014

Cargo Forwarder: CSL Gives a Thumbs Down on Cargolux-HNCA Deal

















My Orchids. Phalaneopsis "You name it". Photo ET

Cargo Forwarder: CSL Gives a Thumbs Down on Cargolux-HNCA Deal

But of course. This is an excellent summary of CSL's comments about the deal. The Chamber is required to advise on ongoing legal issues. 


Cargoforwarder points out the obvious inefficiencies in the agreement, that is unbelievably lopsided. Unless there is more than the documents show and the eye can meet, this will be the second disastrous negotiation that the Luxembourg government leads all on its own, disregarding the rules of good governance of a corporation.

This blog reflected on the same in late December:  http://egidethein.blogspot.com/2013/12/cargolux-shearman-and-chambre-des.html




Saturday, January 4, 2014

Latest CIA leaks about Luxembourg















                                                             
My Orchids. Cattleya Fat Passion. Photo ET

Latest CIA leaks about Luxembourg

Do you use a digital weight scale? From now on you should be aware that the CIA might look over your shoulder. How does that feel?

Here is the latest leak:  In Luxembourg, 26 percent of all residents are obese, according to the CIA World Factbook database. That's excellent news: We are among the slimmest! I take my New Year's resolutions back, right now!