Truth Technologies at age 20

My Orchids: Brassia. Photo ET

Truth Technologies at age 20

A selfie, sort of

This last November 15^th www.truthtechnologies.com reached age 20. Incorporated on November 15^th, 1996 in the Commonwealth of Virginia. Great ideas, great people, great plans. Helping corporations and financial institutions around the world fighting financial crime.

A US presidential election unlike any other

Phalaneopsis Bernie Trump

A US presidential election unlike any other

Born in Luxembourg, living in the US for 27 years, after 6 Presidential elections, familiar with Power on both sides of the Atlantic, following US and international news daily, this is my attempt to explain why the US elections took Europeans (and Americans) off-guard. It is their own fault, to just allow establishment and Press to stuff them with industrialized comments disguised as “news”and propaganda, and explain away the obvious.

I am at a conference in Curaçao, where people have not yet recovered from Donald Trump’s election as President of the United States. "Yet," says Miguel from a large local bank, "we are generally well informed by CNN about what is happening on the continent. Nobody expected that to happen."

In Luxembourg reactions are similar. Surveys had given a 3% support to Donald Trump, 71% to Hillary Clinton. This is also the indirect result of the information, rigged as we will see, by the same CNN. Yet by coolly analyzing the movements of the last ten days of the election campaign, I came to the conclusion that Trump could win up to 40 states, and with that the Presidency! But to arrive at this conclusion, it was necessary to include statistically some emotional but quantifiable imponderables that exist in the opinion movements of large crowds.

What has really happened is an incredible mystification of the public by a series of strategic mistakes made by both parties, a deception by the media that no longer hide their preferences and interfere in the debate to favor their candidate, the failure to recognize the phenomenon of the universal rejection of the political correctness (1) in the United States as well as in Europe, and the failure to master, or even the rigging of the statistical tool by the opinion pollsters, who end up promoting their own preferred predictions. The public went into a rebellion. Rare are still those today who perceive and measure the great fundamental upheaval in the political life of the United States. It happens before our eyes.

Elections are no longer coronations

American democracy is no longer what it used to be, at least not as it was conceived over 240 years ago. American politics has become a cynical science in which the best strategists and tacticians take pleasure in circumventing the precepts of the constitution, of customs, and are often simply ignoring the law. A polarized electorate is ready to either condemn or justify transgressions, even crimes. The result is an arrogant political class that is above the law, and generates an occult power by particular interests and dominant lobbies. And personal ambitions take political parties hostage in a mafia atmosphere. No, this is not a place for choirboys.

So, just over a year ago, even if you only followed the news by chance, you will surely have learnt that the 2016 elections were going to be a duel between Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush. One being the wife of a former President, the other the son and brother of two former Presidents. Hillary against Jeb, as if the Republic were destined to be governed by alternating dynasties, either Bush or Clinton. Such was the will of the occult forces which ruled the parties.

One person, one vote, one candidate!

Was this the new American democracy in the image of North Korea? The Democratic and Republican parties had indeed chosen a strategy of the inevitable result. For Democrats, Hillary Clinton should not have a viable counter-candidate in the primaries at all, so to quickly get to the scenario of one person, one vote, one candidate. For Republicans, Jeb Bush would have competitors, but they would be crushed with millions of dollars in marketing and advertising attacks. The Presidential election would then be a duel Hillary-Jeb, each spending at least a billion dollars to choke-off the other. But one of them would be President.

After Jeb's elimination early in the selection of the primaries, we were already headed for the crowning of "Hillary", a princess heiress in her own right, who as the first woman would inherit the White House by the grace of feminism. It is curious that the America of the "We the People" has become undemocratic to the point that only two dynasties should present Presidential candidates.

When "We the People" revolt

The beautiful strategies concocted by the Electoral Princes of both parties had a catch, in both cases: Bernie Sanders for the Democrats and Donald Trump for the Republicans. The two were not supposed to last long in the primaries, as political correctness would have dictated. To the contrary, we were witnessing an orgy of political incorrectness. The voter, extenuated to be restricted to a handkerchief of liberties, has given free rein to his rancor accumulated for years. And the voter punished the enforcers of the single uniform way of thought of political correctness.

To find some explanations, let’s return to the Primary process. It is the democratic process to select a Presidential candidate from a pool of applicants in the two main parties, the Democrats and the Republicans. The primary elections began in Iowa on February 1, 2016 with a "caucus", a kind of direct democracy, followed by elections in New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina, and finally in July, State by State. It is complicated.

We must first of all know that these primary elections are not organized by the government but by the parties, which are in fact private associations that borrow the state's infrastructure for these elections. These primary elections are either reserved for registered members of the party, or open to everyone depending on the state. The local party sets the rules. The consultation is either in the form of secret ballots or a caucus, a kind of gathering during which a winner is distilled by joining the faction of one or the other candidate, a public vote by show of hands.

This process of primaries is a first element of divergence with European practices. It is the voter who selects candidates for the Presidency, and in principle not the nomenclature of the party as in Europe, where those impose their candidates. In the trajectory toward the nomination, a candidate must skillfully navigate political sensitivities, and sometimes with agility lean more to the right or to the left. This is because both parties each cover a broad ideological spectrum, and the left wing of the Republican Party may have representatives farther left than the right-wing members of the Democratic Party. The history of the parties is astonishing also for their contradictory destinies. Thus the Republican Party of Lincoln, the anti-slavery party, usually does not have a big percentage of the vote of the black electorate. This is the area reserved for the Democrats, although historically linked to the Ku Klux Klan with the last prominent former member being Senator Robert Byrd of West Virginia until 2010. So left and right are really recognizable only in their extreme wings. The rest is a pragmatic "mainstream", often "Independent," where it is not unusual to see characters change from one party to another. Some examples are Ronald Reagan, Michael Bloomberg and yes, Donald Trump. But these election campaigns were brutal in their form, and superficial in their programs.

Dal Bo den Bo boka

Americans would say: “Excuse my French.” Though this is really Papiamento from Curaçao and means: “I’ll punch your mouth.” At recess of course, to stay at elementary school level. By hearing the diatribes of Donald Trump, Lying Ted, Little Marco and Crooked Hillary, one borrows easily their language of the past 16 months! Uncle Joe (Vice President Biden) even challenged Donald: he would wait for the Donald behind the gym. And the Donald said, "I just blow, and Joe bites the dust."

After these clarifications on the major strategies of the future, Trump played “little doctor”, where an open mic met national prudery. It became a schoolyard affair fitting 3rd grade elementary. And Hillary got angry too. She treated the obtuse who wouldn’t vote for her as "deplorable", all the way shouting like a concierge in the staircase. That was expensive: you do not insult voters, only competitors. Donald said she was an inveterate liar. She said that he did not respect women. He said no, that that was her husband Bill. It was a bit tiring, and the voter did not really like either, with an unpopularity rating up to about 75% each.

150% of Americans did not like their candidates

I’m joking of course, in the face of the pollsters who miserably failed their little calculations and predictions. I just added the two unpopularity ratings, 75% + 75% equals 150%. This is obviously an intentionally false and impossible figure, a derisive demonstration of how polls lacked scientific rigor. Mathematically, however, one can conclude that 50% to 75% of Americans did not like either of the two candidates. This means that the voter didn’t decide on which of the two candidates was the best, but which of the two was the least bad. The public decided that it preferred the Donald's volcanic temperament and the political movement he created to the Clinton shenanigans, under constant “investigation” of a now politicized FBI.

CNN, Clinton News Network?

CNN is the epitome of the bad news for the Press which in fact loses its status of fourth power since these elections. The Press was of course not neutral in these elections. On many occasions, it has abandoned its duty of neutrality through selective reporting and intentionally biased stories about both candidates. We know the leanings to the left of the big TV channels, to the right of Fox News and the many radios with their syndicated programs across the country. This really violates the public’s right to know, to know the Truth that is.

CNN stood out being caught with the hand in the cookie jar. CNN was providing Hillary Clinton with advance questions for interviews and debates, according to WikiLeaks, deserving since the nickname of Clinton News Network. As consumers of news, have we become what we consume? Miguel from Curaçao has only CNN as main source of information. European journalists are also watching CNN to concoct their message. No wonder that for lack of choice and personal investigation and analysis, they espouse the bias of those they listen to, including errors and omissions. In these circumstances, the risk of making mistakes is not controllable. It is at low tide that you see who doesn’t wear a bathing suit.

As WikiLeaks brought to light the proximity of certain Press organizations and the political caste, the agitation of his own party against Sanders, the disavowal of Trump by the tenors of his party, it is clear that the heads of both parties have been cut off their bodies.

Wall Street is now Democrat, Main Street and Elm Street are Republican

This is the great upheaval that I mentioned above. It's the world upside down. In the past, electoral clienteles wanted what the leaders of both parties wanted: Hillary or Jeb. It is neither the one nor the other anymore. Bernie Sanders, as one of the two insurgents alongside Trump, would have been more likely to succeed than Hillary, who in fact was not an ideal candidate, with too many attacking angles and weak flanks.

The result of this politico-societal imbroglio is that the middle class is no longer aligned with the interests and aspirations of the elites of the Democratic Party. These elites have lost their party. The Republican elites do not find themselves in the aspirations of the new supporters of the party, including unions! This party lost its elites. The Press has lost public confidence, and public opinion magicians have lost their credibility. Where is America going? It goes in the direction of the fourth power, but that no longer is the Press. The fourth power is now the Bureaucracy, the Great Servants of the State in the Agencies.

In the meantime there will be bad losers who will break their neighborhood for a few more days, CNN will show the protests 24/7, President Hollande will swallow his heartburns, the European Union will seek its compass, and some will finally read the American Constitution

.

(1) The perverse effects of politically correct. (French).15 January 2016. http://tinyurl.com/hp59d5h

Luxembourg’s Nation Brandy in the Daily Mail

My Orchids: "Vertigo". Photo ET

Luxembourg’s Nation Brandy in the Daily Mail

Oops, I meant Nation Branding. Here is the Daily Mail:

"I'm not drunk, it's just the way I walk! EU chief Jean-Claude Juncker dismisses rumours he's an alcoholic and blames injury for appearing drunk"

Luxembourg as honest broker between Israel and the Palestinians?

My Orchids. Phalaneopsis. Peace in Our Time.
Photo ET

Luxembourg as honest broker between Israel and the Palestinians?

The Jerusalem Post reports: "Prime Minister Bettel has invited me to Luxembourg, and he said the Palestinians might also come there," Netanyahu said. "Therefore, it's either Moscow or Luxembourg," he asserted in reference to a Russian-offered meeting between himself and Abbas that has yet to come to fruition. 

"We'll see, either one - or any other place," he added, reiterating that Israel is "always ready for direct negotiations without preconditions."

We probably have to chill out. Moscow might offer more. Unless a small unbiased partner (is Asselborn?) could try to bring both ends together.

We tried in the past. Actually in the early 70ies, King Hussein of Jordan came to Luxembourg in an attempt to try something. And on another occasion the Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs Abba Eban came too. Arafat’s PLO was still in active terror mode. So as a young Platoon leader in the Luxembourg Armed Forces I was assigned among many others to the security task force.

As such a mission was not the standard, soldiers had to be trained with some legal considerations when engaging a suspected terrorist. Which at the time was: “Shout Stop! If the suspect doesn’t obey shout again: Stop, or I open fire! If the suspect doesn’t stop his aggression, fire one shot in the air. If he still doesn’t stop, open fire at him!”

There was some silence. Then one of the men asked the perfect legal question: “Does it matter in which sequence we follow all those four steps?”

A Luxembourg based Porn site hacked

My Orchids: Phalaneopsis "Out of the Shadows". Photo ET

A Luxembourg based Porn site hacked

 The Sun Reported:  Adult site Brazzers confirmed that nearly 800,000 users’ details had so far been compromised.

According to Motherboard, the leak includes full emails, usernames and passwords.

Matt Stevens, public relations manager at Brazzers, said: “This matches an incident which occurred in 2012 with our ‘Brazzersforum,’ which was managed by a third party.

According to Wikipedia, "Brazzers is currently headed by CEO Feras Antoon, and owned and operated by Mindgeek, a multinational officially registered in Luxembourg." 

There is indeed such a company headquartered in Luxembourg: mindgeek.com at Bd. Royal, Luxembourg.

Cargolux – Qatar Airways: Transparency in a sandstorm?

My Orchids, Unsecured Non Interest Bearing Oncidium.

Cargolux – Qatar Airways: Transparency in a sandstorm?

Last week was a target-rich environment for those following Cargolux. Cargolux’ Ex, after the broken marriage of 2011, seems to be scheming a vengeful plan. Thanks to unlimited budgets, Qatar Airways will dry out and smoke out poor CV that has to live on bare earnings. The European Commission would even get angry, if the Luxembourg government would help CV out, in order to survive the QR cannibalism.  

Unlimited budgets don’t rely on earnings but on unlimited money from elsewhere. That means it comes either from a drunken sailor, or a charity, or a mindless investor, or a government. In the case of a government, that money would be called a subsidy.

QR is really miffed at that type of insinuation, that it is a subsidized enterprise. In order to stop the gossip, it issued a “Consolidated Financial Statement” for full transparency, and available online. I gladly share my findings here:

https://theloadstar.co.uk/qatar-airways-reveals-financials-transparency-bid-kill-allegations-state-subsidy/

Oops! This is what you may get too:

The www.qatarairways.com page isn’t working

www.qatarairways.com redirected you too many times.

Try:

• Reloading the page
• Clearing your cookies

ERR_TOO_MANY_REDIRECTS

So now what? Let’s go to Loadstar and at least get a summary explanation about the transparency gig. The relevant article is: “Qatar Airways reveals financials in transparency bid 'to kill allegations of state subsidy'. Try the orange link in paragraph 2: 61-page statement. If you are unsuccessful too, we’ll tell His Highness, and He will kick ass in the IT department.

In the meantime, out of frustration, allow me to just look at the Loadstar’s article to find out about transparency. As you know the allegations of QR being massively subsidized (7 billion in 2015) has been a topic for some time and is resented as aggressive and unfair practice, in a field where others can’t get subsidies.

Back to the article, where it says: ‘The results show the company issued 473,395,000 shares, worth QAR10 each, to the government as payment for “shareholder advances”, which are non-interest bearing and unsecured.’

Alright then: QR has one shareholder since 2013. People agree to call that shareholder the government. If it were one person, this argument here would be moot. A private person can put unsecured and non interest bearing money and lose it wherever. But it is the government, the sole shareholder buying all those shares at 10 QAR each. That government owned 100% before buying these shares. After it bought for close to 5 billion QAR, it still owns 100%, unless you can own 200%.

That money is called “shareholder advances” which are non-interest bearing and unsecured. In other words, it is free money, the government graciously waives interest it would have to pay to itself, and it is unsecured (no guarantee to see it back). A gift. So the owner basically shores up the cash register. Shareholder advances are a nice euphemism for subsidies.The Luxembourg Pilot's Association ALPL could not be duped, Mr Forson the new CEO of CV knows better, only Minister Bausch sees no harm. He also thinks that there is no difference between Luxembourg airport with 5th Freedoms granted to QR, and Liege airport. Don't we all hope that this decision maker is right?

Luxembourg: The wondrous Cargolux negotiators and their ticking time bombs

My Orchids. Sovereign Niche. Photo ET

Luxembourg: The wondrous Cargolux negotiators and their ticking time bombs

We had some quiet moments around Cargolux over the past year. Last year it officially booked a profit, which is encouraging, even if put into perspective, it might be a short-lived blessing that was based on lower fuel costs. In any case the profit rate was only about 2.5%. It is difficult in the air cargo business to make a profit at all. That’s why the government has to care when in Luxembourg one company, CV, is a key activity. Considering gross revenue, the margins are not very comfortable in case markets turn down, or someone comes along spoiling the party. But it is nice for now to show positive results. This week however put Cargolux again in the news.

Dirk Reich’s happy departure to smell the roses.

Dirk Reich resigned as CEO after just a couple of years at the helm. That gets everyone listening, mindful that there was a management exodus a short time ago. Management put a nice face on the events: Dirk Reich, the CEO, chose to retire. Publicly it was much insisted that it was his decision, before anyone doubted it. That actually made some doubt, because the language seems so carefully crafted. His replacement is Mr. Forson, the CFO. He was already the interim CEO before Mr. Reich was recruited. Obviously if now he is the only possible successor in the leadership’s view, he could have been hired instead of Dirk Reich, saving the cost of the executive search at the time.  But for some reason, he was found less qualified than Dirk Reich. So this time he is, and it is done without an executive search, which means he has learnt a lot, so much that the choice is unavoidable. Mr. Forson will preside over the struggles of Cargolux in the near future.

The bad news

Cargoforwarder exposed those struggles to come: the unfair competition from QR, a residual booby-trap left behind from the incredibly incompetent negotiation Luxembourg held with Qatar in 2011, and the ensuing 18 month alliance with QR. Most people remember the embarrassing deal for Luxembourg, selling 35% of CV for $117,5 million! A company counting 1.500 professionals at the time and 16 aircraft was valued at about $300 million, the list price of one aircraft. When finally that alliance was cancelled, the largely unknown collateral agreement granting QR 5^th Freedom rights was not canceled. CV still has reciprocal rights in Qatar, but opportunities there are scarce, mostly empty pallets. It is QR that holds the jackpot in Luxembourg. Opportunities abound, and QR is reported to plan to use its 5^th Freedom on 20 routes, with 24 weekly flights, competing with CV on all those routes but one. It practices dumping prices, down 75% from CV’s pricing. Something has to give. Either the granted rights have to be clawed back, or the dumping practices have to be banned and sanctioned with huge fines. CV did not even practice dumping, just a little coordination of pricing with others, and it cost about $250 million in fines. What is good for the goose is good for the gander. QR was known for its practices. When it was a partner with CV, it already raided CV’s customers in a bidding war on prices.

This time the assault on CV will be merciless. The CEO of QR has sworn revenge for the aborted alliance CV. The corporate culture there was summarized by his quote about the owner, “His Highness will kick ass!” From their due diligence and hiring away key personnel while acquiring 35% of CV, QR knows all of CV’s trade secrets. CV knows nothing about QR, except that their possibilities are endless, and their intentions have been announced: revenge. Never ignore a threat.

The Stockholm Syndrome

Alerted, the government, through the wisdom of Minister Bausch, laid out the battle plan for CV’s defense: Mr. Bausch surrenders, without canceling that agreement on the 5^th Freedom, that was however an integral part of the aborted alliance agreement. He is held hostage, he believes, by some Qatari billions in the Luxembourg economy: Precision Capital, BIL, and KBL. That is called the Stockholm syndrome, when the hostage sympathizes with the hostage taker. I would assess though that Qatar might need Luxembourg more than vice-versa. First of all as an element of their well-planned program to diversify away from Qatar’s finite oil and gas reserves. Second for the interesting opportunities offered in Luxembourg, not to forget a government that is really, really easy to negotiate with. Proof is, we won’t touch the 5^th Freedom and hope His Highness is very pleased.

The spiral

As a consequence of doing nothing, it is inevitable that CV will lose market share to QR. CV is headed for a downward spiral. We seem to be willing to sacrifice an airline in favor of Qatari banks in Luxembourg? There is no other explanation around this. If the reciprocal freedoms are not revoked, CV is going to be the sacrificial lamb to honor the Qatari golden calf.

The reality and the irony

And here is the perfect political storm: as the scheduled Cargolux crisis unfolds, Luxembourg gradually gets closer to the next elections in 2018. According to conventional wisdom, Mr. Bausch will not be part of the new government, dominated by the comeback of the Christian Social party. Interesting news came out in that respect during this week too: the Christian Social party has just designated/elected/nominated its leaders for the elections to come: Mr. Wiseler for the national elections, Mr. Frieden for the European elections. Well that suits us well. We’ll hear expert explanations on the announced disaster from the two specialists: Mr. Frieden did the QR deal almost all by himself while he was Minister of Finance, and Mr. Wiseler was Minister of Transportation. They are the two fathers of the problem, that stepfather Bausch seems unwilling to solve.

As for Luxembourg in the meantime, it will be accused of once again abusing its sovereign rights by letting in the cannibals that ruin European air cargo corporations. The usual abuse through its niche policies. But that could be the solution: as we don’t have the “cojones” to claw back the air agreement from Qatar, let’s Brussels force us to do so. Brussels was invoked time ago to sell to QR in the first place. So our friends can be only mad at Brussels.