No secret here, I want to make clear that my preference is to see Andy Schleck win this year's Tour de France. He might have actually won last year's. The jury is still open indeed to have Contador's victory in 2010 annulled. A ridiculous delaying postpones a final decision on Contador's fate until after this year's Tour, in August. This is sheer dishonest maneuvering. And from my point of view Contador cannot get back into my esteem, despite his considerable talent: his unfair exploitation of Andy Schleck's chain incident in 2010 has exposed a contorted character. He is not a gentleman as we should all expect from a great champion.
This said, Contador might be again this year's winner, as I have feared all along. Therefore I refrained from commenting on this blog, as I watched the discrepancies between Contador's and Schleck's preparation for the Tour. I hoped by now Schleck would mentally dominate Contador, but Contador was able to plant some banderillos. Never mind the more than 1 minute time he lost in the first two stages. He is in super form and Schleck is not. I hope I'm wrong, but my fears over the last months might alas unfold under our eyes.
Those fears are that the launch of the Leopard Team was a big show, almost a patriotic event, that confirmed the status of a primadonna, who doesn't even have to rehearse and everything will fall together. The Team hired more primadonnas, and I wondered who was going to fetch the water. All first violins, but no orchestra. I have come to believe though that actually the orchestra works better than I thought, so far.
Winning however will be one man's feat. There will be days of reckoning where one man has to get to the top of the podium all by himself.
What makes the winner? I would paraphrase Albert Einstein in saying that it is 20% talent and 80% of hard work. Though Contador and Andy Schleck have different morphologies, both have physical features that make them perfect engines and complements to their mechanical machines. That's a given.
The 80% of hard work cover many aspects: physical and mental training, discipline, diet, perfecting style and machine. I don't know for sure, but I believe and rumor has it, that Contador has been the more zealous student this year. But I still cheer for the guy next to the heater in the back of the class room.
There is an overarching unquantifiable element to success: though Schleck gave the wrong answer in the mur de Mûr, and got that banderillo from Contador, and a precious reminder of all the above, he has been lucky. Napoleon asked when presented with a candidate for Maréchal de France: "Is the man lucky?" An impressive question to base a mission critical decision on it! Andy Schleck has been lucky so far.
I just changed my mind: Scleck wins, but which one? Because Contador has been unlucky and doesn't stop falling off his bike, a former Schleck specialty.
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