Audition de la BCEE à la Chambre des Députés.

 

Audition de la BCEE à la Chambre des Députés.

Ce vaudeville vaut de l’or.

Le Luxembourg vit l’affaire Caritas comme une soirée à l ’opérette, avec une légèreté à toute épreuve. On a volé 61 millions d’euros, mais personne n’est fâché. Comme dans l’opérette où un Robin Hood sympa déleste un minable millionnaire de son fric. Quoiqu’ici c’est le contraire : des vilains ont volé l’argent des pauvres.

Le public, décontracté, sait qu’il s’agit de quelque chose de mauvais et que les acteurs principaux se surpassent pour ne pas se montrer embarrassés. On cache quelque chose, l’enquête se poursuit mais n’avance pas, survient le gendarme de la place financière qui dresse procès-verbal pour 5 millions, mais, on ne dira mot à personne.

Le 5 mai dernier il y avait bien une enquête à la Chambre des Députés. Le Comité exécutif de la BCEE et à travers eux les chefs politiques avaient bien coordonné leur position et leurs réponses.

En résumé, on ment mais parce qu’on est obligé. Tous les menteurs vous confirmeront cela. Ce n’était pas nous, mais Caritas. Ce genre de client est unique et présente des angles morts. Des angles donc grands ouverts, où se mettent facilement 61 millions pour un défilé de transferts qui a duré 6 mois. Nous n’avons pas fait de mal ! Donc plutôt du bien ? Ce n’est qu’une petite amende, 5 millions comme le standard international préconise, sauf dans les autres pays. Mais maintenant on peut mentionner l’amende en passant. Plus cette contrainte de mentir, d’esquiver et de se voiler ! Et nous insistons pour nous louer nous-mêmes pour notre excellente coopération avec la CSSF, qui du reste a le même patron que nous. Et parlons des progrès en matière AML/KYC depuis ce petit accident. Plus de progrès en ces 12 mois depuis le scandale, que pendant toutes ces 25 années de vie sous la contrainte du GAFI !

Pour les amis de la transparence, voici les questions que comme professionnel de AML/KYC je me pose :

• ·       Quels droits de regard avait le gouvernement sur Caritas, alors qu’une grande partie du budget de l’ONG provenait du budget de l’état ?
• ·       La banque insiste que l’amende adresse des failles constatées dans le dispositif AML/KYC et que ce n’est pas spécifiquement le cas Caritas qui est visé ? N’est-ce pas la raison de l’audit de la CSSF ?
• ·       La dissimulation de l’amende dans le hearing du 5 mai est justifié par le secret bancaire. Même face aux élus du peuple enquêtant sur un crime dans la Spuerkeess qui appartient au peuple comme ultime propriétaire ? Comment justifier cela ?
• ·       Le ministre et le premier ministre étaient-ils au courant ou non de la situation au 5 mai ? Attention, il ne faut pas (plus) mentir.
• ·       La banque a vérifié les transactions avec Caritas et tout était normal ? L’envergure de la fraude et le nombre inhabituel de transactions auraient dû déclencher une alerte. Dans tous les pays du monde qui adhèrent aux mêmes critères de conformité du GAFI, la réaction normale et encouragée est d’alerter l’autorité en charge de lutter contre le blanchiment et le financement du terrorisme. Au Luxembourg c’est la CRF qui reçoit et enquête sur les déclarations d'opérations suspectes provenant des professionnels du secteur privé. Y a-t-il eu de telles déclarations de la part de la banque en 2024 ?
• ·       Les angles morts dans le financement des ONG sont bien compris, car ce sont ces angles morts qui sont utilisés assez fréquemment pour le financement du terrorisme, souvent a l’insu de l’ONG. Il faut donc une surveillance soutenue.
• ·       On a pris des mesures correctives pour regagner la confiance du public. C’est un chantier qui dure au moins depuis 2018 quand des insuffisances étaient reportées.
• ·       L’argent des pauvres a disparu. Où sont les excuses de la banque et de l’échelon politique ? Le contribuable comme ultime propriétaire paye la note de 61 millions. Non seulement cette note-là, mais aussi l’amende de 5 millions, après quoi tout le monde en charge s’en lave les mains.

Operation John the Blind: in the Kingdom of the Blind, the Clairvoyant is Queen.

 From February to July 2024, thieves stole Euros 61 million from the accounts of Caritas Luxembourg, a Catholic charity over a century old that employed more than 1,000 people. This is one of those cases that will be called the case of the century. Three months of investigation have not shed light on what happened. But there is hope. A clairvoyant guided the thieves, adding a crazy side to this mysterious case that has been kept mysterious for reasons that reason does not know. A financial crime and a disaster for compliance.

Go to the article in French

or

https://www.tageblatt.lu/headlines/caritas-operation-jean-laveugle-dans-le-monde-des-aveugles-la-voyante-est-reine/

Russia’s Group Wagner part 2 and 3 of Wallenstein’s trilogy: Wallenstein’s Death

 

Russia’s Group Wagner part 2 and 3 of Wallenstein’s trilogy: Wallenstein’s Death

 The drama surrounding Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Wagner Group’s owner, took 2 months to play out. We went through Friedrich Schiller’s trilogy as if the same script applied to Wallenstein and Prigozhin. 

First there was conflict and an open rebellion against the Czar. And the Czar got quite angry.

Episode 2 is the betrayal, and a fake pardon and the exile to Czar friendly Belarus. And Prigozhin’s review of loyalties among his troops in Africa and elsewhere. There probably were many Piccolominis shadowing him around the world.

In the epilogue Schiller’s Wallenstein is murdered in his bed. He couldn’t know about the end of the 2023 version. He didn’t know that in 2023 you could fall asleep on a flying machine called a plane and fall out of the sky. Otherwise, the similarities would be perfect. Perfect, sad, and worrisome.

Russia’s Group Wagner Rebellion: Wallenstein’s Camp in Rostov-on-Don

 

Orchid Miss Calculation

Russia’s Group Wagner Rebellion: Wallenstein’s Camp in Rostov-on-Don

There is a compelling parallel between a medieval historic figure, Albrecht von Wallenstein, and Yevgeny Prigozhin, the owner of the private Russian mercenary army, Group Wagner.

In the early 17^th century, during the Thirty Years’ War, Albrecht von Wallenstein had assembled a private army of twenty thousand and eventually forty thousand mercenaries to intervene in the various conflicts in the interest of Emperor Ferdinand II of the Holy Roman Empire. Wallenstein, who over time became very powerful, conspired against the emperor. He would soon be assassinated on the orders of the emperor.

The Wagner Group has its similarities with Wallenstein’s army of mercenaries. Yevgeny Prigozhin here is Wallenstein’s alter ego. Group Wagner is a sort of hybrid military force: not officially Russian, but no doubt activated by the Kremlin, beyond the margins of the Geneva conventions on war. The Group intervenes in undeclared wars or “special operations” in the Ukraine, in Syria, and in several African countries. If the Group has a military success, it is a Russian success. If not, the Kremlin has plausible denial that Russia is not involved and that the Group is a private security force.

But just as in medieval times, private armies could get a life of their own. And so it happened that the modern Russian interpretation of the medieval predecessor defied the emperor in Moscow. The mutiny ended up in a negotiated deal. Yevgeny Prigozhin goes into exile, and his men were forgiven their rebellion and treason charges. Prigozhin’s whereabouts are unknown.  

Miscalculations have their consequences. Wallenstein and Prigozhin know by now. About to learn is Vladimir Putin himself. The “Special Military Operation” in Ukraine has been a huge miscalculation that sooner or later will have lasting consequences. Putin believed in the standard military procedures as they were developed at the time of the Soviet Union. Here is how those procedures would have made a three dayaffair of the Russian aggression. NATO had to deal with the possibility that Soviet military planning could be accurate: a Soviet attack on Western Europe assumed Warsaw Pact forces reaching Western France in 8 days. Crossing Belarus would put Kyiv at 150 km. A 48-hour operation with a combined air assault. That’s what the old Soviet field manuals said. That’s also what the propaganda said.

Now we know NATO was over prepared at the time of the Soviet Union, Russian classical armed forces don’t match their calculations. Except for its nuclear arsenal, Russia no longer is a superpower. China has to re-evaluate its support. And if there is a second collapse down the road, some in Beijing might want to have a look at the Asian parts of Russia. I have met a prominent member of MSS, the Chinese equivalent of the CIA. He oversees septentrional Siberia. Start dreaming?

LuXXXembourg for Porn, LFP. As in Fleites vs Mindgeek and Visa.

 

LuXXXembourg for Porn, LFP. 

As in Fleites vs Mindgeek and Visa

Over the years Luxembourg has become a notorious player in the lucrative porn business. This blog reported as early as 2011 about Luxembourg’s dominant “position” in the worldwide porn business: https://egidethein.blogspot.com/2011/11/luxembourgs-move-to-exxxtreeme.html

Mindgeek SARL, formerly known as Manwin is a Luxembourg SOPARFI, a sort of holding company owning shares in a multitude of porn sites such as Pornhub, Youporn, Brazzers, you name it. Visitors on those sites were 3,500,000,000 in 2019.

But like banking secrecy where you get accused of being an accessory to tax evasion and money laundering, porn may give you 3.5 billion “Likes”, but not only. Access for minors on those sites, revenge porn, sexual exploitation, outright slavery and human rights abuse are out of control in that world and seem to be voluntarily treated with benign neglect by various authorities.

For Luxembourg, a recent member of the United Nations Human Rights Council, it is at least an embarrassment to be an accessory to this kind of trade. Though an unapologetic one: when the question of who regulates Mindgeek came up, both the Luxembourg Government and ALIA, the Luxembourg independent authority for audiovisual activities, enacted Pontius Pilatus: they claim, they are not in charge. But Cyprus is because Cyprus houses one executive entity of the porn empire, under the name of MG Freesites Ltd. However European legislators in France and elsewhere will certainly start pressure. In such an international debate, as it happened with banking secrecy, Luxembourg cannot not win the moral argument and eventually at least confront the lobby of local professionals who are also accessories to the scandal.

The most important threat to the porn industry and Luxembourg’s peace of mind about it may still be legal actions in the US. Variety reports about the recent rulings by US District Judge Cormac Carney of the US District Court of the Central District of California. In the case of Fleites vs Mindgeek, a case of a thirteen-year-old girl who was pressured into a sexually explicit video posted on Pornhub. The video was viewed probably millions of times.

The case extends beyond Mindgeek to Visa accused to have participated in sex trafficking ventures. As the case is getting to Mindgeek’s money flows, it gets to the ultimate owners of the porn sites that generate the revenue. Those matter to the Court, says the judge in the case.

With the judge’s focus on who gets the revenue and who is abetting those activities we may be millimeters away from a Luxembourg Soparfi saving taxes when collecting those revenues from its porn empire! And the Soparfi will be paying just a little tax to someone else who then obviously is also benefitting: the Luxembourg tax man!

I would advise, as I did for years with the tax evasion industry: rid that industry of the criminal problems infesting it now, or you will, after a couple of years of protracted maneuvering, have to make decisions under pressure. 

Sacred Heart University Shuts Down Its Luxembourg Campus

Sunset for SHU Luxembourg

 

Sacred Heart University Shuts Down Its Luxembourg Campus

On March 14, 1990, while I was Consul General of Luxembourg in New York, I received two visitors: Dr Pete Fairbough and Dr Richard Farmer from Sacred Heart University, Fairfield, CT. They enquired about the possibility to establish an MBA Program in Luxembourg.

The Luxembourg Government’s official policy at the time was that Luxembourg didn't want a university on its territory. Forcing Luxembourg students to go study abroad was seen as a good thing promoting world openness and diverse sources of learning at the neighbors.

Knowing the hurdles, and to circumvent various oppositions, we went the extra mile to make it happen. Pete Fairbaugh wrote his dissertation in 1995 for his Degree of Doctor of Education on the development of the MBA program in Luxembourg. As expected, the project encountered some hostility, among others and surprisingly from the Ministry of Education headed by a Christian Social Minister, Marc Fischbach.

In the meantime, as a Trustee emeritus of Sacred Heart University, I’m surprised by the secrecy and suddenness of the decision, but even more by the decision at all. Secrecy and surprise are generally used if conflict can be expected. I take it that there was no unanimity at the Board. The decision by itself is on weak footing: the program was a success confirmed over 30 years. It had its European roots and flavors in one of the European capitals, and it allowed hundreds of students to graduate from a program that put students and faculty face to face. Attending online courses via SHU Fairfield CT doesn’t sound more exciting than attending an Ohio University or University of Phoenix MBA. Competing on price? The Luxembourg angle put Sacred Heart University in a unique position.

So why step back from a proven and unique model now? Access to the Luxembourg government, difficult in the early days, had become a privilege, now that so many of its members are Dr hc of Sacred Heart University. The question then remains, who took this decision and why? It doesn’t seem to measure up to a level of an MBA graduate.

And a final word: why didn’t SHU give a one-year notice of the shutdown, acknowledging some financial responsibility? It is certainly not fair to push the consequences on the students. SHU could have not accepted new first year students and allow for an orderly shut down next year when the last students graduate.

Egide Thein, Trustee emeritus of Sacred Heart University.

Ukraine: When Your Security is Guaranteed by the “Great Powers”.

Ukraine: When Your Security is Guaranteed by the “Great Powers”.

 

When “Great Powers” give you their solemn assurances that they will protect and defend you against an aggressor in exchange for giving up nuclear weapons still on your territory since Soviet times, be suspicious! One of the great powers might become an aggressor while the others will mostly stand by. Sorry Ukraine!

It so happened with my home country Luxembourg. The Treaty of London signed on May 11, 1867, declared the Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg eternally neutral. Therefore, Luxembourg also dismantled its enormous fortress. Then it was overrun twice by German forces in WW I and WW II.

The “Memorandum on security assurances in connection with Ukraine’s accession to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. Budapest, 5 December 1994” bears so many common elements with the Treaty of London. The most important lesson is you only think you are protected. Which comes with a high price, because you are not.

The Russian aggression themed “special operation” is in its 19^th day. It wasn’t supposed to last that long, and slowly Russian generals must bring the bad news to the Kremlin.

It can be assumed that Russian military engagements and tactics are directly derived from Soviet ones. Those are characterized by massive use of artillery, the occasional more creative drop of airborne troops far behind enemy lines to secure an area to be joined by ground troops. Based on those tactics, a Warsaw Pact attack on NATO in Western Europe aimed at reaching the Atlantic in France after 8 days of operations. Taking Kyiv based on those plans would have been possible in 48-72 hours. It did not happen. There are only three possible reasons:

·        The Ukrainian Armed Forces and the population fight a heroic battle.

·        The Russian forces are not what propaganda wants them to be. It is bad planning and bad execution.

·        The slow move of the “special operation” is done on purpose, to test Western reaction and resolve. One outrageous next step after another, crossing another line.

No doubt, Ukrainians put up a fight of historic resonance. To the point that a more logical adversary would concede that the war was lost and break contact. Putin is still too vengeful. Revenge is a bad advisor.

Military threats remain credible until they are tested. Military adventurism is a sort of Russian roulette: if it fails, you expose your unexpected weakness to the world. The only remedy that is left is a bigger gun. Nukes. But that could be the last shot you fired. Hate is a bad advisor.

So why does the Russian military underperform, way below where official propaganda put it? Putin is a trained spy, conspiring to acquire Western technologies. His style is conspiring. Military operations however are clearly designed plans. The Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces is not a trained military. But as a military chief he became rich. If the Soviet style Command and Control structures are still in place, that leaves very little initiative to lower echelons, to the squad commander, Platoon, Company and Battalion commanders. Opposed to Western counterparts who are encouraged to take initiatives within any given battle procedures, Russians are bound to a rigid chain of command. Even a lay person watching TV could wonder what the purpose of 40 miles long bumper to bumper column of armored vehicles was, staying parked on roads. Even basic training would teach that in such a setup, you can get shot like fish in a barrel. It would have happened had the Ukrainian Air Force received additional aircraft. As by now some Russian leaders, such as National Guard Chief Viktor Zolotov, dare to speak out, conceding that the “special operation” is not going too well. The lack of training and incompetence in the upper echelons are surprisingly overwhelming. Those troops are not combat-ready. They also lack basic humanitarian principles.

One could have surmised that the slow progress was a calculated one: testing Western resolve, crossing a line, testing another line until achieving the goals without risking a military response. This would have fitted the profile of a scheming KGB/FSB man. However, those salami tactics violate the principles of war for an effective use of force.

On day 19 Russian operations continue, violating Geneva Conventions, and incidences of war crimes are multiplying. Western response has been mitigated, mostly because of Putin’s nuclear bluff. He has crossed multiple red lines since the Chechnian war, or Georgian invasion or the annexation of Crimea. All episodes exposed Western weakness. The performance of the US, NATO and its individual members is weak. There was no show of unity and resolve in 2014 in the Crimean case. It has become the template for all further “special operations”. It has become the template also for Taiwan. Because from the sidelines are watching China, Iran, and North Korea. And China may one day be in a position, where Russia weakened through senseless wars, will lose Siberia to China. For now China is already winning every day.

From the sidelines is also Trump heckling the performance of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. It will impact the 2022 and maybe the 2024 US elections.

It should be convenient here to show that all this is going on with players who signed a guarantee agreement with Ukraine called “Memorandum on security assurances” on December 5, 1994. Here follows the agreement. It has so many implications for the credibility of the United Nations and the three “great powers” that are signatories, that it speaks dramatically for itself.