or
https://www.tageblatt.lu/headlines/caritas-operation-jean-laveugle-dans-le-monde-des-aveugles-la-voyante-est-reine/
Egide Thein comments on financial policies, financial services, offshore centers, bank secrecy, money laundering, terrorist financing, AML / CTF compliance, money transfers, tax evasion, fraud, corruption and on past and current events in Luxembourg and around the world.
or
https://www.tageblatt.lu/headlines/caritas-operation-jean-laveugle-dans-le-monde-des-aveugles-la-voyante-est-reine/
Russia’s
Group Wagner part 2 and 3 of Wallenstein’s trilogy: Wallenstein’s Death
The
drama surrounding Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Wagner Group’s owner, took 2 months to
play out. We went through Friedrich Schiller’s trilogy as if the same script
applied to Wallenstein and Prigozhin.
First
there was conflict and an open rebellion against the Czar. And the Czar
got quite angry.
Episode
2 is the betrayal, and a fake pardon and the exile to Czar friendly Belarus.
And Prigozhin’s review of loyalties among his troops in Africa and elsewhere.
There probably were many Piccolominis shadowing him around the world.
In the
epilogue Schiller’s Wallenstein is murdered in his bed. He couldn’t know about
the end of the 2023 version. He didn’t know that in 2023 you could fall asleep
on a flying machine called a plane and fall out of the sky. Otherwise, the
similarities would be perfect. Perfect, sad, and worrisome.
Orchid Miss Calculation |
Russia’s Group Wagner
Rebellion: Wallenstein’s Camp in Rostov-on-Don
There is a compelling
parallel between a medieval historic figure, Albrecht von Wallenstein, and
Yevgeny Prigozhin, the owner of the private Russian mercenary army, Group
Wagner.
In the early 17th
century, during the Thirty Years’ War, Albrecht von Wallenstein had assembled a
private army of twenty thousand and eventually forty thousand mercenaries to intervene
in the various conflicts in the interest of Emperor Ferdinand II of the Holy
Roman Empire. Wallenstein, who over time became very powerful, conspired
against the emperor. He would soon be assassinated on the orders of the emperor.
The Wagner Group has its
similarities with Wallenstein’s army of mercenaries. Yevgeny Prigozhin here is
Wallenstein’s alter ego. Group Wagner is a sort of hybrid military force: not officially
Russian, but no doubt activated by the Kremlin, beyond the margins of the Geneva
conventions on war. The Group intervenes in undeclared wars or “special
operations” in the Ukraine, in Syria, and in several African countries. If the
Group has a military success, it is a Russian success. If not, the Kremlin has
plausible denial that Russia is not involved and that the Group is a private
security force.
But just as in medieval
times, private armies could get a life of their own. And so it happened that
the modern Russian interpretation of the medieval predecessor defied the emperor
in Moscow. The mutiny ended up in a negotiated deal. Yevgeny Prigozhin goes
into exile, and his men were forgiven their rebellion and treason charges. Prigozhin’s
whereabouts are unknown.
Miscalculations have
their consequences. Wallenstein and Prigozhin know by now. About to learn is
Vladimir Putin himself. The “Special Military Operation” in Ukraine has been a huge
miscalculation that sooner or later will have lasting consequences. Putin
believed in the standard military procedures as they were developed at the time
of the Soviet Union. Here is how those procedures would have made a three dayaffair of the Russian aggression. NATO had to deal with the possibility that
Soviet military planning could be accurate: a Soviet attack on Western Europe assumed
Warsaw Pact forces reaching Western France in 8 days. Crossing Belarus would
put Kyiv at 150 km. A 48-hour operation with a combined air assault. That’s
what the old Soviet field manuals said. That’s also what the propaganda said.
Now we know NATO was over
prepared at the time of the Soviet Union, Russian classical armed forces don’t
match their calculations. Except for its nuclear arsenal, Russia no longer is a
superpower. China has to re-evaluate its support. And if there is a second
collapse down the road, some in Beijing might want to have a look at the Asian
parts of Russia. I have met a prominent member of MSS, the Chinese equivalent of
the CIA. He oversees septentrional Siberia. Start dreaming?
LuXXXembourg for Porn, LFP.
As in Fleites vs Mindgeek and Visa
Over the years Luxembourg
has become a notorious player in the lucrative porn business. This blog
reported as early as 2011 about Luxembourg’s dominant “position” in the
worldwide porn business: https://egidethein.blogspot.com/2011/11/luxembourgs-move-to-exxxtreeme.html
Mindgeek SARL, formerly
known as Manwin is a Luxembourg SOPARFI, a sort of holding company owning
shares in a multitude of porn sites such as Pornhub, Youporn, Brazzers, you
name it. Visitors on those sites were 3,500,000,000 in 2019.
But like banking secrecy
where you get accused of being an accessory to tax evasion and money
laundering, porn may give you 3.5 billion “Likes”, but not only. Access for
minors on those sites, revenge porn, sexual exploitation, outright slavery and
human rights abuse are out of control in that world and seem to be voluntarily
treated with benign neglect by various authorities.
For Luxembourg, a recent
member of the United Nations Human Rights Council, it is at least an
embarrassment to be an accessory to this kind of trade. Though an unapologetic
one: when the question of who regulates Mindgeek came up, both the Luxembourg
Government and ALIA, the Luxembourg independent authority for audiovisual
activities, enacted Pontius Pilatus: they claim, they are not in charge. But
Cyprus is because Cyprus houses one executive entity of the porn empire, under
the name of MG Freesites Ltd. However European legislators in France and
elsewhere will certainly start pressure. In such an international debate, as it
happened with banking secrecy, Luxembourg cannot not win the moral argument and
eventually at least confront the lobby of local professionals who are also
accessories to the scandal.
The most important threat
to the porn industry and Luxembourg’s peace of mind about it may still be legal
actions in the US. Variety reports about the recent rulings by US District
Judge Cormac Carney of the US District Court of the Central District of
California. In the case of Fleites vs Mindgeek, a case of a thirteen-year-old girl
who was pressured into a sexually explicit video posted on Pornhub. The video
was viewed probably millions of times.
The case extends beyond
Mindgeek to Visa accused to have participated in sex trafficking ventures. As the
case is getting to Mindgeek’s money flows, it gets to the ultimate owners of
the porn sites that generate the revenue. Those matter to the Court, says the
judge in the case.
With the judge’s focus on
who gets the revenue and who is abetting those activities we may be millimeters
away from a Luxembourg Soparfi saving taxes when collecting those revenues from
its porn empire! And the Soparfi will be paying just a little tax to someone else
who then obviously is also benefitting: the Luxembourg tax man!
I would advise, as I did
for years with the tax evasion industry: rid that industry of the criminal
problems infesting it now, or you will, after a couple of years of protracted maneuvering,
have to make decisions under pressure.
Sunset for SHU Luxembourg |
Sacred Heart University Shuts Down Its Luxembourg Campus
On March 14, 1990, while I was Consul General
of Luxembourg in New York, I received two visitors: Dr Pete Fairbough and Dr
Richard Farmer from Sacred Heart University, Fairfield, CT. They enquired about
the possibility to establish an MBA Program in Luxembourg.
The Luxembourg Government’s official policy at
the time was that Luxembourg didn't want a university on its territory. Forcing
Luxembourg students to go study abroad was seen as a good thing promoting world
openness and diverse sources of learning at the neighbors.
Knowing the hurdles, and to circumvent various
oppositions, we went the extra mile to make it happen. Pete Fairbaugh wrote his
dissertation in 1995 for his Degree of Doctor of Education on the development
of the MBA program in Luxembourg. As expected, the project encountered some hostility,
among others and surprisingly from the Ministry of Education headed by a
Christian Social Minister, Marc Fischbach.
In the meantime, as a Trustee emeritus of
Sacred Heart University, I’m surprised by the secrecy and suddenness of the
decision, but even more by the decision at all. Secrecy and surprise are
generally used if conflict can be expected. I take it that there was no
unanimity at the Board. The decision by itself is on weak footing: the program
was a success confirmed over 30 years. It had its European roots and flavors in
one of the European capitals, and it allowed hundreds of students to graduate from
a program that put students and faculty face to face. Attending online courses
via SHU Fairfield CT doesn’t sound more exciting than attending an Ohio
University or University of Phoenix MBA. Competing on price? The Luxembourg angle
put Sacred Heart University in a unique position.
So why step back from a proven and unique model
now? Access to the Luxembourg government, difficult in the early days, had
become a privilege, now that so many of its members are Dr hc of Sacred Heart
University. The question then remains, who took this decision and why? It doesn’t
seem to measure up to a level of an MBA graduate.
And a final word: why didn’t SHU give a one-year
notice of the shutdown, acknowledging some financial responsibility? It is
certainly not fair to push the consequences on the students. SHU could have not
accepted new first year students and allow for an orderly shut down next year
when the last students graduate.
Egide Thein, Trustee emeritus of Sacred Heart University.
Ukraine: When Your Security
is Guaranteed by the “Great Powers”.
When “Great Powers”
give you their solemn assurances that they will protect and defend you against an
aggressor in exchange for giving up nuclear weapons still on your territory since
Soviet times, be suspicious! One of the great powers might become an aggressor
while the others will mostly stand by. Sorry Ukraine!
It so happened with my
home country Luxembourg. The Treaty of London signed on May 11, 1867, declared
the Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg eternally neutral. Therefore, Luxembourg also dismantled
its enormous fortress. Then it was overrun twice by German forces in WW I and
WW II.
The “Memorandum on
security assurances in connection with Ukraine’s accession to the Treaty on the
Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. Budapest, 5 December 1994” bears so many
common elements with the Treaty of London. The most important lesson is you
only think you are protected. Which comes with a high price, because you are
not.
The Russian aggression
themed “special operation” is in its 19th day. It wasn’t supposed to
last that long, and slowly Russian generals must bring the bad news to the
Kremlin.
It can be assumed that
Russian military engagements and tactics are directly derived from Soviet ones.
Those are characterized by massive use of artillery, the occasional more
creative drop of airborne troops far behind enemy lines to secure an area to be
joined by ground troops. Based on those tactics, a Warsaw Pact attack on NATO
in Western Europe aimed at reaching the Atlantic in France after 8 days of
operations. Taking Kyiv based on those plans would have been possible in 48-72
hours. It did not happen. There are only three possible reasons:
·
The Ukrainian Armed Forces and the population fight a heroic
battle.
·
The Russian forces are not what propaganda wants them to be. It
is bad planning and bad execution.
·
The slow move of the “special operation” is done on purpose, to
test Western reaction and resolve. One outrageous next step after another,
crossing another line.
No doubt, Ukrainians
put up a fight of historic resonance. To the point that a more logical
adversary would concede that the war was lost and break contact. Putin is still
too vengeful. Revenge is a bad advisor.
Military threats
remain credible until they are tested. Military adventurism is a sort of
Russian roulette: if it fails, you expose your unexpected weakness to the
world. The only remedy that is left is a bigger gun. Nukes. But that could be
the last shot you fired. Hate is a bad advisor.
So why does the
Russian military underperform, way below where official propaganda put it?
Putin is a trained spy, conspiring to acquire Western technologies. His style
is conspiring. Military operations however are clearly designed plans. The
Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces is not a trained military. But as a military
chief he became rich. If the Soviet style Command and Control structures are
still in place, that leaves very little initiative to lower echelons, to the
squad commander, Platoon, Company and Battalion commanders. Opposed to Western
counterparts who are encouraged to take initiatives within any given battle
procedures, Russians are bound to a rigid chain of command. Even a lay person
watching TV could wonder what the purpose of 40 miles long bumper to bumper column
of armored vehicles was, staying parked on roads. Even basic training would teach
that in such a setup, you can get shot like fish in a barrel. It would have
happened had the Ukrainian Air Force received additional aircraft. As by now
some Russian leaders, such as National Guard Chief Viktor Zolotov, dare to
speak out, conceding that the “special operation” is not going too well. The
lack of training and incompetence in the upper echelons are surprisingly overwhelming.
Those troops are not combat-ready. They also lack basic humanitarian principles.
One could have
surmised that the slow progress was a calculated one: testing Western resolve,
crossing a line, testing another line until achieving the goals without risking
a military response. This would have fitted the profile of a scheming KGB/FSB
man. However, those salami tactics violate the principles of war for an
effective use of force.
On day 19 Russian
operations continue, violating Geneva Conventions, and incidences of war crimes
are multiplying. Western response has been mitigated, mostly because of Putin’s
nuclear bluff. He has crossed multiple red lines since the Chechnian war, or
Georgian invasion or the annexation of Crimea. All episodes exposed Western
weakness. The performance of the US, NATO and its individual members is weak.
There was no show of unity and resolve in 2014 in the Crimean case. It has become
the template for all further “special operations”. It has become the template
also for Taiwan. Because from the sidelines are watching China, Iran, and North
Korea. And China may one day be in a position, where Russia weakened through senseless wars, will lose Siberia to China. For now China is already winning every day.
From the sidelines is
also Trump heckling the performance of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. It will
impact the 2022 and maybe the 2024 US elections.
It should be
convenient here to show that all this is going on with players who signed a
guarantee agreement with Ukraine called “Memorandum on security assurances” on
December 5, 1994. Here follows the agreement. It has so many implications for
the credibility of the United Nations and the three “great powers” that are
signatories, that it speaks dramatically for itself.
Ukraine:
From Sitzkrieg
to Blitzkrieg, or from Phony War to WW III?
In the Ukraine, history
repeats itself. The parallels to the European 1930ies are staggering. Russia
plays the old German handbook today. Or Putin plays Hitler. Here it goes, stroke
after stroke and side by side:
1.
At the beginning are two historical
events. The Treaty of Versailles of 1919 ended up being resented by German
public opinion as a Diktat, politicized by Adolf Hitler. The collapse of the
Soviet Union finalized in 1991 left many nostalgic about the lost empire, among
them Vladimir Putin. Both men determined that their destiny was to correct
their national catastrophic events.
2.
Both men grabbed and consolidated absolute
power.
3.
Both men strengthened their military and
started exerting power on neighboring “previously lost” territories.
4.
After getting the world used to their
threatening rhetoric, comes the next phase of an undeclared war: Hitler
intervened in the Spanish Civil War, annexed the Sudetenland from Czechoslovakia
in 1938, and the Austrian “Anschluss”. Putin’s biography includes the Chechen
war, the war with Georgia in 2008, and the annexation of Crimea in 2015.
5.
Hitler signed a “non-aggression pact” with
Stalin, securing his Eastern border. Putin engineered unprecedented friendship
with Xi’s China, securing and aligning interests with China’s.
6.
European powers tried to appease Hitler. Noteworthy
is the British Prime Minister’s speech in 1938 returning from a meeting in
Munich where he was lured by Adolf Hitler. Neville Chamberlain declared that he
was bringing back “Peace for our time”. And “go home and get a nice sleep.”
These days Western powers, most notably Presidents Biden and Macron multiplied
attempts to rein in Vladimir Putin, threatening him with sanctions. Their
appeasement efforts didn’t even yield a phony agreement. Putin crossed a line
on February 22nd by ordering Russian troops into dissident Ukrainian
provinces.
This side-by-side comparison
looks like a copy and paste calendar on the way to World War III. By disclosing
and defining the West’s anticipated reaction upon an invasion of Ukraine as
being “sanctions”, a western military option was taken off the table. Maybe not
explicitly, but Putin just tested the West by moving troops beyond the status
quo line into the repurposed Ukraine territories of “Donetsk People’s Republic
and “Luhansk People’s Republic”. And he sees no military reaction of the West.
Proof that the only consequences will be limited to sanctions. Which will be a
little annoying only for those sanctioned, but widely cancelled out through Russian-Chinese
friendship and commercial ties.
In geopolitics and
military strategies, it is vain to gauge an adversary’s intentions. Instead,
all that counts are his possibilities and those should be analyzed. Is an
invasion of the rest of Ukraine coming? It is a possibility. Militarily,
Ukraine stands alone, as the West has no appetite for war. Putin sees US and
European leadership as weak. Worse, how much Kompromat does he have about
western leaders? And he is the solution to Europe’s partly self-inflicted
energy crisis. China wouldn’t stand in his way and might use the crisis and perceived
weaknesses to its own advantage regarding Taiwan. If the annexation of Ukraine
is in his plans, as his past actions seem to show, his moment is now: a weak
West, Europe with no political will to call to arms and with no military aspirations,
a sympathetic China, and an overwhelming combat ready Russian force with air
superiority. Not mentioning the nuclear weapon.
Given this unique
alignment of the stars in Russia’s favor, an assault on the Ukraine is a real
possibility. The Ukraine Government just mobilized reserve units. Signs point
towards war.
We’ll then see a
classical script unfold. Ironically there seems to emerge another similarity
with 1940, the von Schlieffen Plan. The Russian built-up at the border is
complemented by another built-up in Belarus where combined exercises included
the use of airborne forces. The setup on the ground indicates a possible plan
copied from the German von Schlieffen plan, throwing German forces through
Luxembourg, Belgium and the Netherlands, in this case through Belarus.
Having already stressed
the importance of viewing possibilities over intentions, let’s allow us to
speculate on the intentions by suggesting the following scenario:
We’ll know that day J and
hour H have arrived when cyber and physical attacks occur on Ukrainian Command
and Control centers. This is the prelude to an imminent ground attack.
Ukrainian defense forces will be targeted by intense artillery “preparation”, including
the well-known Stalin’s organs. The Belarus exercises showed the presence of
airborne forces. The Russian plan would be typical if it used an airborne
division to be dropped in the vicinity of a key objective, maybe Kyiv. Ground
forces from Belarus would in priority fight their way, less than 100 miles, to
that dropping zone to join forces at the throat of Ukrainian decision makers. A
very concerning possibility that would within hours put the world facing a
“fait accompli”.
Besides Putin another
winner is President Xi. Doors are open to deal with Taiwan. History there will
repeat itself too.