Andy and Frank Schleck's Career Building

    My Orchids. Vanda Maillot Jaune. Photo ET.

Andy and Frank Schleck's Career Building

Many, many years ago, I was dreaming myself of winning the Tour de France. Let me insert a picture here to lend some credibility to 

Emile Lamberty, Pierre Meyer, Marcel Holtgen, Egide Thein as members of UC Dippach, time ago

what I'm saying. But after a while, I postponed that ambition, and though I haven't completely given up hope yet to one day win the Tour, I have to consider those critical voices in my family that argue that a grandfather never won the Tour. Defeatists in my family! But I can still lecture the Schlecks I hope!

I did so in 2009, when it was obvious that what the Schleck brothers needed was a strong team, and learning from the Master. And the biggest Teacher at the time was Lance Armstrong and the best team was Radio Shack. In my analysis, it combined the most efficient training program, the best biking technologies, a scientific approach to diet and life style. Of course no one knew at the time that Armstrong's success also included a toxic component, prescribed by the famous doctor. As much as Armstrong is to blame, the supervisory bodies of UCI and other sports authorities are to blame for failing to detect the wrongdoings. Was it permissiveness, or willful blindness or another reason? Those  certainly failed the public too.

I still argue that joining Radio Shack by then would have been the right move for the 2010 season. Indeed you could have joined the team, and maybe when confronted with a culture of doping, decide to either participate or reject it. That's what grownups do.

For Frank in any case, convicted and barred for doping for one year, it wouldn't have made a difference, right?

Finally,after losing two years, an altered version of the once great Radio Shack team emerged from the Leopard constellation. But to me it looked like a Luxembourg "me too" shadow of the great Brand. Mr. Becca, the Luxembourg builder and sports fan being the new engine behind the team. The little engine that could not. And things went the way they went.

Today, Frank Schleck at age 33 has no team when his ban expires on July 15th. He is not happy, and Andy Schleck is not happy either about his brother's fate. Both Schlecks have to contemplate the obvious solutions: they were dealt a lemon, they should make lemonade.

Which means that the two brothers have to make the best out of their two particular situations. They are no longer linked by the hip. Andy has to show a good result in the Tour, all by himself. Recrimination about his brother's fate does not help. Actually, I would also like to understand the geniuses at the team management, who felt that now was the moment to fire a prime associate, Frank, and demoralize the team in the midst of the one hundredth Tour. Continuing mediocre results will of course disqualify Andy Schleck from the A-list of serious contenders for anything, and that is not a career.

Frank is the equivalent of a 55 year old employee who lost his job. It will take some good luck, help and optimism to get into the saddle again.

Impossible? No, certainly not, given the talent. However the two brothers integrating the same team might just be a wishful possibility. It cannot be a condition anymore.

Downhill with Frank Schleck to meet the Disciplinary Board

Sometimes no news would be far better news.

My Orchids. Phalaenopsis. Photo ET

Frank Schleck will have to report to the Disciplinary Board of ALAD, the Luxembourg Anti-Doping Agency. Frank was tested positively on July 14th during the Tour de France 2012 for a specified substance according to the French anti-doping agency. That substance, Xipamide is a diuretic, often used to mask other performance enhancers. Frank Schleck, after a miserable season for both Schleck brothers and mostly all of the Leopard RTN team, didn't need yet another leg downhill in a desperate battle to reach the bottom and reemerge.

Hold your horses !

Frank Schleck's positive testing, in both the A and B samples, merely allows to conclude to an "abnormal" test, as Xipamide is not a doping substance. It means that there was smoke, but no one could find the fire. There might be sanctions though, but generally one may expect far lighter consequences than in the case of a fully demonstrated doping case.

In addition Frank Schleck denies any allegation of doping and has even filed a criminal complaint with French Police, which is in line with his statement that the substance could only have entered his body unbeknownst to him. A poisoning in fact, which would not be a doping case.

Somewhere downhill, there is a bottom. It is important to get there sooner than later and leave all this behind. There will be a new Start sometime.

After the Tour de France 2012, the Schleck Team RNT spiraling down

My orchids. It takes some patience, discipline and work. Photo ET

Enovos Ends Sponsorship 

With RadioShack-Nissan

Bikeworldnews reported about this public statement from Enovos, the Luxembourg energy company, cutting its support to the team.

“As part of its partnership with the Luxembourg cycling team Leopard Trek, then RadioShack-Nissan-Trek, Enovos wishes to express its satisfaction with the way things went in 2011,” reads a press release from the company. “It transpired that with the sponsorship of the Leopard Trek team in 2011 gave a very satisfactory level visibility, branding and communications for the Group Enovos. Additionally, results were at the level expected.
“Unfortunately, the 2012 season has not brought the desired results,” it continues. “Considering only the sporting angle, this is part of the risk of sponsorship. However, the image that the RadioShack-Nissan-Trek team has given this year is by no means in line with the image that Enovos wants to communicate. There have been too many negatives have since the beginning of the year. Finally the withdrawal of Fränk Schleck from the 2012 Tour de France, following an abnormal result of a doping control, led Enovos to reconsider its partnership with RadioShack-Nissan-Trek.
“Therefore, the sponsorship agreement is terminated by Enovos with effect from 1 August 2012,” it concludes. “Enovos strongly deplores the events of recent months. However, as a socially responsible company, Enovos does not wish to continue this partnership, as the values representing the image of Enovos are not compatible with the affairs developing around RadioShack-Nissan-Trek.”


Of course, this isn't good news. A miserable season, an accident for Andy Schleck, a brewing political-financial scandal involving Flavio Becca, the founder of the Leopard team, and a doping accusation against Frank Schleck. That's a little much for a team that has not been successful. An old friend used to say: "If it is a success, no one asks how much did it cost".


For my part, if I may be just a little presumptuous: I would have preferred that the Schlecks would have followed my free advice from July 2009, advocating an early alliance with RadioShack and  Lance Armstrong for the reasons explained here: 


http://egidethein.blogspot.com/2009/07/luxembourg-tour-de-france-armstrong.html


I believe it was a mistake to delay such a decision and to opt instead for a "Luxembourg" solution, which had to have the following shortcomings: shortness of (financial) breath of the main sponsor, a tiny market for endorsements, absence of any serious research facility to enhance preparedness of the team and equipment. I'm sure some object with some sarcasms about Lance Armstrong's "preparedness." And even there, I would defend the option that was available at the time.


Where to go from here? Simply, go through the hell you have now and find a team. A good team. Not one with primadonnas only. Prepare seriously, work hard and show what you can, if possible with early successes in the 2013 season. The talent is there. Maybe you Schleck brothers  should watch your advisers. At least my advice is free advice. You Leopards! Put a tiger in your tank! Arrh, Frank, not literally!

The year Andy Schleck wins 2 Tours de France in one year?

Andy Schleck today was in yellow. Indeed he was declared the winner, just now in 2012, of the Tour de France 2010, after Alberto Contador lost his victory to the "contaminated beef" from a corrida doping case against him. For Andy Schleck it is a bitter victory, because he was denied the usual glory, thrill and fun of touring the Champs Elysées  in 2010 as the winner. And his fans were deprived too. His victory will forever carry a footnote, saying "after the disqualification of Alberto Contador".

The way Andy Schleck got the yellow jersey is almost a metaphor for what is wrong with 2012, and why he might not win 2 Tours the same year: This was a victory on paper by the end of the day, and the day he was clad in yellow, Andy Schleck was not a champion in top form. Actually for both Schlecks, the 2012 season has not been brilliant. But it shouldn't be that way. On paper they are two athletes  who have great talent  and can do very well. They have on paper the strongest team. They have on paper the infrastructure to support many victories, the most gifted and capable professionals managing and caring for the team. So where are the results, where is the problem?

It is somewhat unproductive and unhelpful to blame the Schlecks. To a certain point. The blame has actually to be something else, such as tough love. That's what they need, and tough love here it is:

You both are extremely gifted. So was Charly Gaul in the 50ies. Individually, that is great to have. But without a team all three of you could only be prima donnas. When Charly Gaul got this, after many glorious feats in several Tours without a final victory, and was accepting the evidence and listened to advice, that added up to his 1958 victory. His path to victory was talent, training, suffering and self-discipline. Those are all the physical and the mental ingredients that makes a winner.

 I was always convinced that in modern cycling, apart from the good luck to have great natural talent, all other attributes get acquired by methodological and science based physical and mental training. You do have the magical manager who set the scene for Lance Armstrong's many victories. Don't fight the magic. Physical preparedness can be fixed. Be careful of the emotional side and the negativity of conflict. It messes up the whole team.

Emotional preparedness comes with adhering to the idea that you have the best managers, that you are motivated, that many people contributed to get you the best team, that the Luxembourg  public will again camp on the slopes of the Alps to fire you up. But you have to be motivated, stick together with that team, work hard, persevere, suffer, impress the competition not only with your skills, but also your willpower.

No one can answer questions like these more accurately, and hopefully honestly than you: Did I prepare thoroughly for the 2012 season, do I want very badly to win, not only for me, but my team and my public, did I get out of recent competitions too easily, was I at the limit of my suffering, do I have the discipline to follow my preparation plan, even when no one is watching and lastly can I really subdue my tendency to reject authority and submit to the directions of a manager? All it takes is a quiet moment of deep honest if not brutal introspection.

You have it all together on paper, an exceptional configuration of talent, team, management and  public support. That doesn't happen very often. You are in such a privileged situation to see this through. It now is up to you to have the willpower to make it happen. 

Target Tour de France 2012. The Schlecks' Team Presentation

Our friends at road.cc did a really nice job reporting about the presentation of the new RadioShack Nissan Trek Team. Event and pictures of the new outfits with Luxembourg colors and Lance Armstrong's Livestrong yellow band.

http://road.cc/content/news/49968-great-expectations-launch-radioshack-nissan-trek-ahead-crucial-year-road

Personally, I had started dreaming of a recipe for success in 2009, given the evident shortcomings of the Schlecks' organization for a victory in the Tour de France. The most obvious road is the one that could have happened in 2009, in time for the 2010 season. Here were the arguments and they still are almost the same: ad know-how and expertise to the Schleck's talents:

http://egidethein.blogspot.com/2009/07/luxembourg-tour-de-france-armstrong.html

Here are the 2012 boys for RadioShack Nissan Trek:

Jan Bakelants (BEL)
Daniele Bennati (ITA)
George Bennett (NZL)
Matthew Busche (USA)
Fabian Cancellara (SUI)
Laurent Didier (LUX)
Jakob Fuglsang (DEN)
Tony Gallopin (FRA)
Linus Gerdemann (GER)
Ben Hermans (BEL)
Chris Horner (USA)
Markel Irizar (ESP)
Ben King (USA)
Andreas Klöden (GER)
Tiago Machado (POR)
Maxime Monfort (BEL)
Giacomo Nizzolo (ITA)
Nelson Oliveira (POR)
Yaroslav Popovych (UKR)
Joost Posthuma (NED)
Grégory Rast (SUI)
Thomas Rohregger (AUT)
Hayden Roulston (NZL)
Andy Schleck (LUX)
Fränk Schleck (LUX)
Jesse Sergent (NZL)
Jens Voigt (GER)
Robert Wagner (GER)
Oliver Zaugg (SUI)
Haimar Zubeldia (ESP)

Tour de France to visit Corsica in 2013

Won't start at the Tour de France 2013: Emile Lamberty, Pierre Meyer, Marcel Holtgen and Egide Thein of Union Cycliste Dippach, Luxembourg ca. 1963

If you plan to win the Tour de France in 2012, and you don't (maybe you end up second again, who is this?), you can plan on 2013. You'll start from Corsica, which has never happened before. It is called the Isle of Beauty. People have their authentic character, and in stereotypes, they sometimes explode devices. And their literature tells about gruesome vengeance, the well known vendetta, a word that is an export from there.

If Contador is whitewashed these days, then Andy Schleck and Andy's brother, Frank is his name, have to defend their honor: seen from Corsica, whatever whitewash is decided anywhere on the continent is just unacceptable.

http://espn.go.com/olympics/cycling/story/_/id/7276318/tour-de-france-visit-corsica-2013

Fränk Schleck: ”Andy and I will not be riding the Giro”

Fränk Schleck: ”Andy and I will not be riding the Giro”

Neither do I.

Andy Schleck and Frank Schleck sharing Tour de France stories.

It is so much fun to climb those mountains.

http://peckvillchen.blogspot.com/2011/10/den-andy-schleck-den-frank-schleck-am.html

Tour de France, Andy Schleck, Radioshack and the Leopards.

The rumor comes back. I never doubted that it would come back that there is interest between Trek and Lance Armstrong and the Schlecks to work together. Obviously the Leopard team delivered a good show, but failed the whole season.

It is just amazing how the Schlecks are advised. May I say this again, in the words of 2009? I actually don't have to change a single word about my article posted on this blog on July 31, 2009. The Schlecks are ill advised, they have unusual talent, but since 2009 they wasted 2 years listening to self-interested people, who care as much about their own careers than the Schlecks about their career.

A professional cyclist's career is limited to 10-15 years. In the meantime Andy and Frank Schleck wasted 2 years of their limited time, building the careers of those who advise them.

Here is my own advice, completely free, but exactly 2 years and 1 month old. I wouldn't change a word to it.

Friday, July 31, 2009

Luxembourg, Tour de France, Armstrong, Andy Schleck and Radioshack.

The rumor was a rumor!

The rumor we heard has already been denied: Andy Schleck won’t be in a Lance Armstrong led Radioshack team in 2010, but continue with his brother Frank Schleck in their affiliation with Saxobank.

As a consequence, Tour de France 2010 has already three main contenders: Alberto Contador, Andy Schleck and Lance Armstrong, actually the podium of Tour de France 2009. Andy Schleck being the youngest of the three seems to have the greatest potential for improvement, mostly in the time trials. And his age makes him a real candidate for the yellow jersey in Paris in 2010.

This is a good reason enough for him not to tie himself in with another ambitious leader of another team, Lance Armstrong.

A second look.

However, let’s have a look at what would have been or could have been, if Andy Schleck would have signed up with Lance Armstrong and Radioshack. It is not a futile exercise, but rather part of a necessary due diligence about a career move. A professional cyclist’s retirement age comes early. Many never have revenues that rise to the level of minimum wages. There might be 500,000 to 1,000,000 people on the slopes of Mont Ventoux. But no one pays a dime, contrary to what fans would have to shell out in any other type of sport. So our heroes are paid for their very hard work by their sponsors, or from winning prizes and from endorsements. A successful champion can have a lucrative second job as an official endorser. How lucrative that is, depends on the market, in which people identify with him. For Andy Schleck, that’s 500,000 people in Luxembourg. For Lance Armstrong, that’s 300,000,000 Americans or 600 times Luxembourg. This brings me to the interesting point of what if.

Yes, what if?

What if we had had an Armstrong-Schleck association within a Radioshack team? Andy Schleck would have had to scale back his ambition to win the Tour for another year: Lance wants to win an 8th Tour. But Andy Schleck would have learned from a great master. A man who won so many competitions, who overcame immense adversity, who has proven his courage, who demonstrates an unfailing discipline, who almost scientifically has dissected all aspects of cycling from aerodynamics to equipment and nutrition, who operates according to his plan, and in my mind who exerts some kind of mental dominance by just showing up. Though this looks like blind fiery fan talk, I believe this is a cold assessment of what that man is. He won seven Tours!

Even associated with Lance Armstrong, Andy Schleck had still a chance to win the tour in 2010. Indeed it is a long way to Paris. If not, with a mentor like Lance Armstrong, Andy Schleck would have been the top contender in 2011 and many years thereafter. So we are talking about fame delayed for one year, because of a self-imposed hiatus to learn from the master and help him achieve his 2010 goal.

There lies the interest for such an association for Andy Schleck. His association with Lance Armstrong drags him from a small regional European market for endorsements into the arms of a continental market. His association with Armstrong would have created that missing link to the American public, which is very ready and open to consider someone who spreads good vibes as one of their own. And as a daily viewer of the Tour on the US channel Versus, I witnessed the sympathetic comments that the Schleck brothers earned there on a daily basis. The US market for endorsements is already half open!

Next steps, if I may!

In these days of beer diplomacy, why wouldn’t you, the Schleck brothers, and Lance come by and have a beer with me, and we’ll sort it out.

And now, I have to say it, I can’t hold it back anymore: Radioschleck!

Analysis: Low-profile Evans claims spectacular Tour win

I liked this analyses, as I think it is the most accurate. It corroborates opinions expressed earlier in this blog.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/24/us-cycling-tour-idUSTRE76N2BT20110724

Schleck says he’s happy to finish on podium with brother, vows to win Tour another year

And that's a problem. Andy Schleck (and Frank Schleck) did a great Tour. They showed talent, panache and they looked overall more like old fashioned, courageous fighters. I know I repeat myself: the meticulous preparation and execution a Lance Armstrong would have deployed were not there with the Schlecks. Oh yes, I saw a picture of Andy in a wind channel. Photo-op or innovation? But Nygard's comments in this article about evaluating situations, tend to confirm that the preparation was a little bit old fashioned.

Cadel Evans prepared and executed religiously. That brought him to heaven. With less panache than Andy Schleck, but with certainly talent too, discipline and method that helped in the minutes of hardship and that most of all, brought him with significant reserves to the time trial where he could unleash that cushion of energy.

The Washington Post here has some good and enlightening comments:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/schleck-says-hes-happy-to-finish-on-podium-with-brother-vows-to-win-tour-another-year/2011/07/23/gIQA3QcRVI_story.html

Tour de France with Andy Poulidor or was it Raymond Schleck?

The weeks to come will be the time for introspection. My headline suggests that we are in an inevitable cycle of second places, that we have known with Raymond Poulidor. Both Raymond Poulidor and Andy Schleck are fine characters and talented athletes. But is Andy Schleck doomed, like Poulidor? I like to insist on some thoughts, that I put up in my blog ….. 2 years ago, and I made a reference to it already yesterday:

http://egidethein.blogspot.com/2009/07/luxembourg-tour-de-france-armstrong.html

Now, compare that blog to the following article, in French:

http://www.eurosport.fr/cyclisme/tour-de-france/2011/evans-avait-tout-prevu_sto2882793/story.shtml

The most important lesson says this:

Invité à commenter ses trois semaines de course samedi soir, Evans a eu cette phrase: "J'ai fait un Tour cohérent." On ne saurait dire mieux. "Ça a été la clé de la course", ajoute-t-il. Il a raison. Malgré quelques pépins par ci par là, comme son problème mécanique dans le Télégraphe vendredi, il a, contrairement à tous ses adversaires, évité les fautes. Celles qui vous coûtent un Tour. Le Tour parfait n'existe pas mais Evans s'en est approché. Et ce n'est pas le fruit du hasard. "C'est l'aboutissement d'un long processus, explique John Lelangue, le manager de l'équipe BMC. On a bâti ce projet autour de Cadel voilà deux ans et tout le monde s'est mis à 100% derrière lui." "Cette année, confirme Evans, nous avons planifié soigneusement: sur l'équipe, dans les stages, l'équipementier, les ingénieurs.... Tout le monde a beaucoup travaillé pour me donner le meilleur vélo de contre-la-montre. Il y a eu beaucoup de préparation."

In one word, there has been a 2 years' quasi scientific preparation for Cadel Evans. No one will ever win the Tour again without it. Talent and panache is no longer good enough.

Congratulations to Cadel Evans, the Schleck brothers, Voeckler, Contador, and actually all the others who make to Paris today. Thank you for a great show.

Tour de France 2011: Cadel Evans and the Schleck Brothers.

The Aussie kangaroo beat up the Red Lion badly. Cadel Evans started to impress me by mid-Tour already, when he showed that climbing a mountain wasn't going to be a problem for him. He kept well under the radar though, and didn't get attention. He also saved forces, just participating, not initiating. He actually gets upset at his peers, if they don't chase when it would be his interest. Today he was impressive, a bundle of force, yet a particular and nice style. Sturdy bike too, to support the assaults of such an unleashed beast! The kangaroo has a yellow jersey in his pouch.

The Schlecks put up a nice fight. Maybe they showed some improvement in time trials, though not significantly enough to prevail. Martin and Voeckler and Contador too went deep into their reserves.

The strategy to apply for Andy Schleck was obviously either to get to today's stage with at least 3 minutes to lose, or to be prepared at a maximum for this time trial stage. He didn't have that time cushion. Preparing for the time trial is "complicated". This starts with scouting its itinerary. I was appalled to read that Andy Schleck reconnoitered the terrain only this morning. I took some issue before with the celebrity strategy that seems to prevail at team Leopard: too many photo-ops, and probably a deficit on getting down to business. I would rather have spent several days exploring the significant stages of the Tour, up to the last turn, the last meter.

Time ago I thought Lance Armstrong would have done such a thing.

Scientifically, not public relationally. See therefore my blog from July 31, 2009:

http://egidethein.blogspot.com/2009/07/luxembourg-tour-de-france-armstrong.html

Or simply drill down to July 2009 in the blog archive on the right. Nothing has changed to the rationale. To the contrary, the 2010 and mostly the 2011 experience give the thoughts some good validation. You can't win with your mouth. Only with your legs and a scientifically prepared head and body and strategy. And our boys have the great gift of extraordinary talent, that guarantees success after a good preparation.

Please read: Luxembourg, Tour de France, Armstrong, Andy Schleck and Radioshack.

Tour de France: Andy Schleck in Yellow, Frank Schleck in Twellow.

Today's firework somehow got wet by last week's rains, I guess. It went off, but then it just puffed up the mountains. The final bouquet needed a replacement champion to jump in, Charlemagne's Rolland who thought the Alps were the Pyrenees and the Schlecks were Saracens, and he blew his horn at Alpe d'Huez. Nicely done, beating the real Saracen Alberto. A good consolation for the team and its leader who lost his yellow jersey. It was a tough day, but a heroic one for him. Sometimes alone, he looked more and more like Mrs Doubtfire struggling with that yellow outfit. But no one can doubt he was doing all he could.

The Tour is now decided, except that we don't yet know for sure if it is decided in favor of Schleck or Evans. Which of course we can blame on Johny Schleck, Andy's and Frank's father: we are talking about poor planning here. Why isn't there a third brother Schleck?! One who would have 3 minutes on Evans now? And anyway, when by tomorrow Cadel Evans is beaten by both your boys, weren't you aware that a podium has three steps, and could accommodate three Schlecks!?

I unfortunately haven't any other wisdom to share for tomorrow. In all Evans (sic), the clock will be the enemy.

The Schleck Brothers, Tour de France, Stage 19 to Alpe d'Huez.

My global syndicated Sports and Culture Page. We all know Frère Jacques, don't we? Remember your kindergarten teacher? This is just lyrics of the day. Now sing along! And make it sound enthusiastic!

Frères Schlek-ke,

Frères Schlek-ke,

Dormez-vous?

Dormez-vous?

Sonnez Thomas Voeckler,

Sonnez Cadel Evans!

Conta dort,

Conta dort.

See you remembered. I loved your accent!

The year Andy Schleck won TWO Tours de France.

I kept quiet for a while, I couldn't gauge my men over the last two or three days. I couldn't really hold my breath, without turning blue, until uncertainty would subside. Now it has.

Gone for at least a day are the hesitation waltzes, the watch me, I watch you, the fine calculations similar to a pharmacist's count, whether to take risk already 50 yards from the arrival, or later, or to do a really crazy thing 100 yards away. No one showed even a glimmer of strategy, and tactics were rudimentary. Yet people suffered. The Tour is a big deal, excruciating, dangerous. But somehow we were missing the champion who showed guts, who would do his thing, show us, get us out of our armchairs. I missed my old hero Charly Gaul, the Angel of the Mountains, a climber as the world has never seen again. A legend who would defy gravity, and punish his opponents on the scary slopes of Galibier.

Andy Schleck couldn't wait for the Galibier. So there he went in the Izoard which not only made for a marvelous display of guts, but even for good tactics, the finest the Schleck brothers can play, and only brothers can play: it is fine if the other one wins.

So here it goes. Monfort is dispatched up front. Andy attacks, not looking left and right, leaving Frank in Contadors back, like a mosquito. Andy joins forces with team mate Monfort. He will either succeed going the whole way up the Galibier, but if not, the alternative kicks in. If the peloton, or rather the survivors of the peloton will catch up with Andy. Therefore Contador has to the work, maybe even Cadel Evans, maybe Voeckler the man in yellow if he has juices left. If that happens, Frank Schleck, doing no work, will be fresh enough to immediately place his own attack, and that would probably be much closer to the arrival. Barring unforeseen weakness, one of the Schlecks had to win.

Now we know how it turned out. Fine strategy, because it was. The Schlecks didn't have to play the alternative solution. Andy Schleck, though weaker on the last 2 km, seemed surprisingly fresh. Compare that to Voeckler, one step away from intensive care. as for Contador, I'm inviting him to come to Florida and try to beat me. Privately I claim to be the local King of the Mountain. As for the man under the radar, he had to come out today. Cadel Evans had to limit his losses all by himself. He needs still to be taken care of tomorrow, or he will remain a contender.

I would by now think that Schleck will win the Tour. I don't yet know for sure if it is Andy or Frank. If it is Andy, he might actually win 2 Tours de France the same year: the Tour 2011 and also the Tour 2010 if Contador is found guilty later in August when the delayed = denied justice will be spoken.

Tour de France 2011. C'est compliqué. But today gave some visibility over the complicated Schleck-Contador battle.

C'est compliqué! It's complicated! This is an expression used and abused by one of the French commentators of the Tour on TV 5. That's why I prefer Versus. It is less complicated.

It's complicated in this case means anything: it's difficult, unknown, unforeseen, cold, slippery, fast, slow, warm, steep, left turn, right turn, break away, win the jersey, lose it, the Château on the river, Clenbuterol, the Church steeple of Issy-les-Moulineaux ,substance abuse, fall, get up, and actually complicated. I never knew it was so complicated.

Today, I had an uncomplicated day watching the 8th stage arriving at Super Besse. The last climb was giving me the first hint for some believable predictions: indeed, Schleck placed a banderillo on Contador. All things happened in a plausible sequence. Contador by now has to go on the offensive every time that the circumstances, such as terrain, demand it. He has to try again and again to inflict damage and seconds on Schleck. Here are the bad news for Contador as of today: there isn't just one Schleck to beat, but two, he has lost precious time which forces him into the offensive, his style of dancing on his pedals, which usually is the hallmark of a great climber, was far less elegant than usual and he was straining. Most importantly, he couldn't get rid of the two Schlecks. Believe it, this was a brutal test of everyone's limits. Short but brutal. In one word: compliqué.

Andy Schleck seemed calm, concentrated and uncomplicated. He didn't seem operating at the outer edges of his possibilities. Bjarne Riis, Contador's new and Schleck's former director must have noticed. It is getting compliqué. Tonight Contador has to wonder how complicated this has become.

Tour de France 2011: What is Contador doing there and why he could beat Schleck (Andy that is).

No secret here, I want to make clear that my preference is to see Andy Schleck win this year's Tour de France. He might have actually won last year's. The jury is still open indeed to have Contador's victory in 2010 annulled. A ridiculous delaying postpones a final decision on Contador's fate until after this year's Tour, in August. This is sheer dishonest maneuvering. And from my point of view Contador cannot get back into my esteem, despite his considerable talent: his unfair exploitation of Andy Schleck's chain incident in 2010 has exposed a contorted character. He is not a gentleman as we should all expect from a great champion.

This said, Contador might be again this year's winner, as I have feared all along. Therefore I refrained from commenting on this blog, as I watched the discrepancies between Contador's and Schleck's preparation for the Tour. I hoped by now Schleck would mentally dominate Contador, but Contador was able to plant some banderillos. Never mind the more than 1 minute time he lost in the first two stages. He is in super form and Schleck is not. I hope I'm wrong, but my fears over the last months might alas unfold under our eyes.

Those fears are that the launch of the Leopard Team was a big show, almost a patriotic event, that confirmed the status of a primadonna, who doesn't even have to rehearse and everything will fall together. The Team hired more primadonnas, and I wondered who was going to fetch the water. All first violins, but no orchestra. I have come to believe though that actually the orchestra works better than I thought, so far.

Winning however will be one man's feat. There will be days of reckoning where one man has to get to the top of the podium all by himself.

What makes the winner? I would paraphrase Albert Einstein in saying that it is 20% talent and 80% of hard work. Though Contador and Andy Schleck have different morphologies, both have physical features that make them perfect engines and complements to their mechanical machines. That's a given.

The 80% of hard work cover many aspects: physical and mental training, discipline, diet, perfecting style and machine. I don't know for sure, but I believe and rumor has it, that Contador has been the more zealous student this year. But I still cheer for the guy next to the heater in the back of the class room.

There is an overarching unquantifiable element to success: though Schleck gave the wrong answer in the mur de Mûr, and got that banderillo from Contador, and a precious reminder of all the above, he has been lucky. Napoleon asked when presented with a candidate for Maréchal de France: "Is the man lucky?" An impressive question to base a mission critical decision on it! Andy Schleck has been lucky so far.

I just changed my mind: Scleck wins, but which one? Because Contador has been unlucky and doesn't stop falling off his bike, a former Schleck specialty.

Luxembourg's Schleck Brothers and their Career.

On July 31, 2009 I wrote a post on this blog: Luxembourg, Tour de France, Armstrong, Andy Schleck and Radioshack. (1). In this post, I gave the following unsolicited advice: Join team Radioshack with Lance Armstrong for the 2010 season. You'll learn a lot from the science behind team Armstrong, and it will be good for your career.

What if?

Today I still believe that was good advice, though of course that didn't happen. But the "what if" question is appropriate, as Team Leopard Trek starts a new season. So what if Season 2010 had been a Radioshack association?

As things went, a weakening Armstrong, seeing that he couldn't win the Tour, would have pushed Andy Schleck into the leadership position, and he might have won the Tour in a clear manner. With a serious support team, his equipment would probably not have had a chain incident that cost him the Tour. He also would have gotten closer to the US sponsorship market, which obviously needs a reason to support a Luxembourg champion and that reason would have been the link to Armstrong. Let me guess: the Luxembourg sponsors are very few?

A lost year 2010.

What really happened was that the Schlecks spent a year with a dysfunctional Team Saxobank. Key managers left early in the season. Those who stayed spent their time on damage control, on altercations, and the director Bjarne Riis was already secretly managing Alberto Contador as he was scrambling to set up a 2011 team. Knowing that, he had more interest in a Contador victory while he was directing Schleck, in whose victory he was probably less interested. One has to be naive to assume that Riis was not managing his future interests, whereas his day to day job was about contentions.

Andy "stuck" to Riis' program to attack Contador only on the last kilometer in the crucial stage. It's hard to believe that this was a serious strategy, only in reverse. We know what happened: a mechanical malfunction aborted Andy's attack, and Contador, who had eaten a lot of beef as he said, seized the occasion and showed that if you are not a fair play guy, you can still win the Tour. He won it by exactly the amount of seconds that he took on Andy Schleck in that fatal stage. Ill gotten in more than one way.

Get upset, Nondikass!

Even after the Tour was over and Contador was struggling to explain a forbidden substance in his system, detected during anti-doping controls, Andy was not upset. Andy: this is a world level competition. Being a gentleman with your closest competitor stops at least at the moment when he violates the code of honor. As we now know, he seems to have violated the law too.

Leopard Trek

All the above is not relevant anymore, were it not to introduce the following: As everyone knows the new season got started with the Schlecks being at the center of Team Leopard Trek. Nice. No Bjarne anymore, but no Armstrong either. So far it has been a marketing success with a zest of Luxembourg patriotism and of mystery. The main sponsor, Luxembourg's Flavio Becca is mostly unknown.

A team of 29 has been assembled and counts a number of great champions. That's many primadonnas. There lie two dangers: first such a team becomes the team to beat, and everyone ends up running against them. The second danger is that the team will not work like a team but like a collection of just primadonnas, nice to show on a stage, but impossible to have them work together.

So I reiterate my unsolicited good advice to Andy Schleck: as I said, the Leopard Trek setup is fraught with dangers. You will be the man to beat because of the reputation out there. Reputation alone doesn't make a winner, it is being physically and mentally prepared (à la Lance Armstrong I would say). It is not the best reputation but being the fastest that will make you win. And remember, you are a naturally nice person. But call a cheat a cheat and an usurpation an usurpation. And all best wishes for this year's great adventures.

http://egidethein.blogspot.com/2009/07/luxembourg-tour-de-france-armstrong.html