The year Andy Schleck won TWO Tours de France.

I kept quiet for a while, I couldn't gauge my men over the last two or three days. I couldn't really hold my breath, without turning blue, until uncertainty would subside. Now it has.

Gone for at least a day are the hesitation waltzes, the watch me, I watch you, the fine calculations similar to a pharmacist's count, whether to take risk already 50 yards from the arrival, or later, or to do a really crazy thing 100 yards away. No one showed even a glimmer of strategy, and tactics were rudimentary. Yet people suffered. The Tour is a big deal, excruciating, dangerous. But somehow we were missing the champion who showed guts, who would do his thing, show us, get us out of our armchairs. I missed my old hero Charly Gaul, the Angel of the Mountains, a climber as the world has never seen again. A legend who would defy gravity, and punish his opponents on the scary slopes of Galibier.

Andy Schleck couldn't wait for the Galibier. So there he went in the Izoard which not only made for a marvelous display of guts, but even for good tactics, the finest the Schleck brothers can play, and only brothers can play: it is fine if the other one wins.

So here it goes. Monfort is dispatched up front. Andy attacks, not looking left and right, leaving Frank in Contadors back, like a mosquito. Andy joins forces with team mate Monfort. He will either succeed going the whole way up the Galibier, but if not, the alternative kicks in. If the peloton, or rather the survivors of the peloton will catch up with Andy. Therefore Contador has to the work, maybe even Cadel Evans, maybe Voeckler the man in yellow if he has juices left. If that happens, Frank Schleck, doing no work, will be fresh enough to immediately place his own attack, and that would probably be much closer to the arrival. Barring unforeseen weakness, one of the Schlecks had to win.

Now we know how it turned out. Fine strategy, because it was. The Schlecks didn't have to play the alternative solution. Andy Schleck, though weaker on the last 2 km, seemed surprisingly fresh. Compare that to Voeckler, one step away from intensive care. as for Contador, I'm inviting him to come to Florida and try to beat me. Privately I claim to be the local King of the Mountain. As for the man under the radar, he had to come out today. Cadel Evans had to limit his losses all by himself. He needs still to be taken care of tomorrow, or he will remain a contender.

I would by now think that Schleck will win the Tour. I don't yet know for sure if it is Andy or Frank. If it is Andy, he might actually win 2 Tours de France the same year: the Tour 2011 and also the Tour 2010 if Contador is found guilty later in August when the delayed = denied justice will be spoken.

Tour de France 2011. Schlecks place another banderillo on Contador.

Imagine that nothing has changed from the assumptions at the beginning of the Tour. Then Contador is the man to beat. Seeing what I have seen in days past, that's almost done already. Today Contador got another little banderillo losing just two seconds on Andy Schleck, whom he could not follow in the final meters.

Which brings me to talk about some serious matters, watching the latest stage from the comfort of my armchair. It is indeed a difference from what you see from the discomfort of your bike's saddle. But what I see might be more accurate.

I see Contador straining. He is out in my opinion. I see an emerging champion, Thomas Voeckler, who grew with the jersey. He is a more serious contender now than Contador. He seems to gradually grow into his best form ever.

I see Cadel Evans hanging on there, almost under the radar. And while suffering in the mountains, he is looking forward to arrive at Alpe d'Huez, the last climb, still under the radar, still with the pack. The following day could be his day: 42.5 km individual time trial.

That is pretty much the situation: Contador should attack, but can't. He is Can'tador. But there are two unexpected new guys. The Schlecks have to deal with them now.

Here is my second piece of advice to Andy Schleck: an attack in the mountains should be like any good attack, a surprise, sudden and brutal, delivered with maximum force and sustained. Believe a military guy. Those are the principles and rules of military art. They apply to the Tour de France. There is great suffering among all of your opponents. Seeing a guy sprinting away, suddenly and who seems to keep going, delivers a great psychological blow and sows despair, empties shoulders of all force and paralyzes legs.

You showed today that you can go into your reserves and break away, when you decide to do it and commit to it. However, you could have done it earlier, but you telephone your plan. By now, even I have noticed that you look around, check on your left, check on your right, where is Frank, where is Contador, and then you try to go, but only for 10 seconds. It looks like a countdown on Cape Kennedy: 5 look around, 4 look left, 3 look right, 2 where's Frank, 1 here's Contador - Lift-Off! Everyone knows these ticks by now.

There is good news with this. Keep doing this until the day you really want to strike fast and furiously. Then you don't do your ticks. It will be utter surprise.

The Luxembourg House on Beekman Place, New York

On July 13th, 2011 took place at Beekman Place a small but intense ceremony commemorating the 20th anniversary (or so) of Luxembourg's acquisition of Irving Berlin's mansion in New York. It was also a signing the book occasion, "The Luxembourg House on Beekman Place" the wonderful work of authors Debra Pickrel, Pamela Hanlon and Marianne Matthews. I must say, knowing the subject, that this is a job well done, covering in three chapters the story of an exceptional building: the Forrestal Years, the Berlin Years and the Luxembourg House.

This takes me back as a key player to the beginning of the Luxembourg chapter. I elaborate in my memoirs those several months of struggle to perfect the acquisition of this certainly outstanding building. It was indeed a battle of Cannae to get the various parties to agree with my weak argument that I liked this building best. Stay tuned...

1993, official opening of the renovated Luxembourg House. L to R: Egide Thein, Consul General, Crown Prince Henri of Luxembourg, Jacques F. Poos, Minister of Foreign Affairs.

Senators Target Foreign Tax Havens

Senators target tax havens

A recurring initiative. I have repeatedly reported on this possible piece of new legislation, as well as that other concept of "judicial and regulatory haven". Both are in the drawers for some time, ready to go, I assume. What it takes is the right circumstances to get the votes.

It could well be that the present misery in the land's finances and compromising will achieve that this one sees the light of day. Unless there are no foreign tax havens left, as they say.

For an orientation, I left a link for a similar story in 2007 at the end. Which tells us two things: if per impossible, there are tax havens left, they have still a chance to see this going away for another 4 years. Second, a certain Senator Obama at the time supported the initiative.

July 13, 2011|New York Times

NEW YORK - Saying that offshore tax havens deprive the US Treasury of tens of billions of dollars of revenue a year, two senior Democratic senators are pushing to help reduce the federal deficit by tightening rules that allow hedge funds, derivatives traders, and corporations to skirt federal taxes.

A bill unveiled yesterday by Senator Carl Levin, chairman of the permanent subcommittee on investigations, would change Internal Revenue Service regulations that allow US traders of credit-default swaps to avoid paying federal taxes on many transactions that begin in the United States. It would also tighten rules that enable some hedge funds and corporations based in the United States to reduce their federal tax liabilities by declaring themselves foreign companies and moving a small part of their operations overseas.

Levin, a Michigan Democrat, has spent years investigating tax avoidance schemes and estimates that abuse of offshore havens costs the Treasury more than $100 billion a year. He said his proposal could provide a breakthrough in the stalled deficit-reduction negotiations between President Obama and Congress. Obama has refused to approve a deal that does not include increased revenues, and Republicans have said they will oppose any measure that increases taxes. Levin said his plan offers a compromise.

The chairman of the Senate Budget Committee, Kent Conrad, Democrat of North Dakota, introduced a plan Monday to cut $4 trillion from the deficit through spending cuts and revenue increases. Conrad said that by taking aim at tax shelters the federal government could reduce the deficit and lower the corporate rate to 29 percent from 35 percent without increasing taxes on the middle class or imposing severe cuts on Medicare or Social Security benefits.

From February 2007:

http://www.accountingtoday.com/news/23407-1.html

Tour de France 2011. C'est compliqué. But today gave some visibility over the complicated Schleck-Contador battle.

C'est compliqué! It's complicated! This is an expression used and abused by one of the French commentators of the Tour on TV 5. That's why I prefer Versus. It is less complicated.

It's complicated in this case means anything: it's difficult, unknown, unforeseen, cold, slippery, fast, slow, warm, steep, left turn, right turn, break away, win the jersey, lose it, the Château on the river, Clenbuterol, the Church steeple of Issy-les-Moulineaux ,substance abuse, fall, get up, and actually complicated. I never knew it was so complicated.

Today, I had an uncomplicated day watching the 8th stage arriving at Super Besse. The last climb was giving me the first hint for some believable predictions: indeed, Schleck placed a banderillo on Contador. All things happened in a plausible sequence. Contador by now has to go on the offensive every time that the circumstances, such as terrain, demand it. He has to try again and again to inflict damage and seconds on Schleck. Here are the bad news for Contador as of today: there isn't just one Schleck to beat, but two, he has lost precious time which forces him into the offensive, his style of dancing on his pedals, which usually is the hallmark of a great climber, was far less elegant than usual and he was straining. Most importantly, he couldn't get rid of the two Schlecks. Believe it, this was a brutal test of everyone's limits. Short but brutal. In one word: compliqué.

Andy Schleck seemed calm, concentrated and uncomplicated. He didn't seem operating at the outer edges of his possibilities. Bjarne Riis, Contador's new and Schleck's former director must have noticed. It is getting compliqué. Tonight Contador has to wonder how complicated this has become.

New US Ambassador to Luxembourg: From "Call me Madam" to "Call me Monsieur".

President Obama has announced the nomination of Robert A. Mandell as the US Ambassador to Luxembourg. He is the Chief Executive Officer of a real estate and two mall development companies in Central Florida. Please see here what the Huffington Post has found out:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/06/29/obama-donor-robert-mandel_n_887061.html

There you have it. Just like his predecessor Cynthia Stroum, Robert Mandell has been a donor and fund raiser for President Obama's election campaign. That was the easiest part. Ask Cynthia Stroum. After just one year at her post, she got quite an earful from "The General Inspector". That name sounds scary. Though Luxembourg loved her, she had to go. She says, she has been wrongfully accused. I know that Luxembourgers have considered the various accounts of wrongdoing she was tagged with as peccadilloes. But that's us: we live on large footprints and do more in generalities, not the focused particularizations on concrete matters of a meticulous audit. So our Embassies don't need Inspector Generals. Luxembourg developed its own dynamic self regulation processes. But again, back to Cynthia Stroum: we called her Madam, in remembrance of Irving Berlin's musical "Call Me Madam!" I always thought there should be a sequel. What about "Call Me Monsieur"? Which reminds me of John Wayne. Not that he played in "Call Me Madam". But he played in "Comancheros", where he tried a thousand times to call his co-star Whitman "Monsieur". It took me a while to get that he meant to say "Monsieur" when he said "Monn-Dzioor". So it is a tongue breaker. We'll have to advise if that title is adequate for a sequel. In the meantime, we can give plenty of advice to Monsieur, based on Irving Berlin's musical, Pearl Mesta's and Cynthia Stroum's adventures in foreign lands and my own deep, deep insights into diplomacy.

There will be hearings first. We would love to contribute to your mandatory initial statement and say, that Luxembourg is of such an importance that it goes way beyond its size, it is everywhere in the front peloton: founding member of the UN, NATO and the European Union. You might want to kick in BeNeLux, the OECD, and the promising Schleck brothers in the Tour de France. We are the richest country on Earth and all the other planets, with trillions of dollars lying around. Therefore we also promised to take one prisoner from Gitmo. Yep, trillions. So someone has to come over and see when we are going to make good on the Gitmo promise. You did doctor the video with our SOS from that day, didn't you? You can also say that we are not a tax haven and don't qualify for Barney Frank's planned judicial haven benchmarks. We are very hard working people, to keep things the way they are, even after you find out what we are doing. It is politically very correct to mention the Luxembourg-American Cultural Society, based in Belgium, Wisconsin. Belgium!? And also the Luxembourg-American Chamber of Commerce, based in New York. I'll see you there!

Benefiting from Pearl Mesta's and Cynthia Stroum's experience, I would say, double check where Luxembourg is. Pearl Mesta got lost in the Belgian Province of Luxembourg upon her arrival. Those Belgians feed on our excellent reputation.

The Embassy in Luxembourg might look empty. I understand that most of the staff applied for positions in Afghanistan to escape hardship in Luxembourg. I would definitely keep the queen size mattress. It was bought by a democrat and the country can't really accept king size mattresses. Those restrictions are based on its limited territory of 999 square miles. You might have to man the Embassy's outside surveillance cameras yourself as everybody left. Be aware that some guys in Luxembourg have criticized those as an intrusion of their privacy! They will show up making faces to the camera. I would for sure investigate where the equivalent of $2,400 of wine went, that Cynthia Stroum left there. The wine still should be there, because I know for a fact that Cynthia Stroum didn't drink it. She had 3 glasses in 30 years. Go ask her!

Don't expect to meet the Prime Minister of Luxembourg. He is home, but exclusively in Europe. He is berating the Greek and other PIIGS because he is Monsieur too, but Monsieur Euro only. He would have liked to become Monsieur Europe, but he got outfoxed by Monsieur Van Rompuy. You won't meet him either, because he is Belgian. Van isn't his first name, but that is an aristocratic prefix you could buy from broke aristocrats some time ago. The sale is no longer available.

Don't expect to meet our SOS either. He is also our Vice Prime Minister. I call him Jang, but in America you would spell that Zhang. No, he doesn't live in Chinatown. We haven't any yet. Jang will be in Zimbabwe, Tonga, Vanuatu, Congo and basically every place where a guy can decide to vote for Luxembourg as a future member of the UN Security Council. Keep your veto handy, here we are coming. Except for Israel though, I don't believe you'll have bad behavior. And on key strategies, such as pulling back from Afghanistan, I assume we'll follow closely the US lead, and withdraw 3 soldiers in July 2012, and the remaining 4 a week later.

I know, Monsieur, that as a real estate professional, your choice of Luxembourg hasn't been left to chance. You chose location, location, location. It is a very nice place to be. Getting bored? Rome, Paris, Berlin, London etc. all are just one hour away. But don't try beating boredom by moonlighting, building malls in Luxembourg. The building permit will take 7 years to get, then you have to fight a lawsuit from those against, another 7 years, and then you have to go to the Human Rights Court in Strasbourg, because justice delayed is Justice denied. You could however build just across the border in Belgium, next to Ikea. Those guys had no patience and gave up prematurely on Luxembourg, after only a handful of years trying to get a permit. Now, on the three days where the sun shines, people can watch Ikea's growing shadow totally enveloping Luxembourg before sunset. It's the Ikea eclipse.

And Monsieur, before closing my eyes after all these eye-openers, may I wish you the best of luck and success in your new career.

Tour de France 2011: What is Contador doing there and why he could beat Schleck (Andy that is).

No secret here, I want to make clear that my preference is to see Andy Schleck win this year's Tour de France. He might have actually won last year's. The jury is still open indeed to have Contador's victory in 2010 annulled. A ridiculous delaying postpones a final decision on Contador's fate until after this year's Tour, in August. This is sheer dishonest maneuvering. And from my point of view Contador cannot get back into my esteem, despite his considerable talent: his unfair exploitation of Andy Schleck's chain incident in 2010 has exposed a contorted character. He is not a gentleman as we should all expect from a great champion.

This said, Contador might be again this year's winner, as I have feared all along. Therefore I refrained from commenting on this blog, as I watched the discrepancies between Contador's and Schleck's preparation for the Tour. I hoped by now Schleck would mentally dominate Contador, but Contador was able to plant some banderillos. Never mind the more than 1 minute time he lost in the first two stages. He is in super form and Schleck is not. I hope I'm wrong, but my fears over the last months might alas unfold under our eyes.

Those fears are that the launch of the Leopard Team was a big show, almost a patriotic event, that confirmed the status of a primadonna, who doesn't even have to rehearse and everything will fall together. The Team hired more primadonnas, and I wondered who was going to fetch the water. All first violins, but no orchestra. I have come to believe though that actually the orchestra works better than I thought, so far.

Winning however will be one man's feat. There will be days of reckoning where one man has to get to the top of the podium all by himself.

What makes the winner? I would paraphrase Albert Einstein in saying that it is 20% talent and 80% of hard work. Though Contador and Andy Schleck have different morphologies, both have physical features that make them perfect engines and complements to their mechanical machines. That's a given.

The 80% of hard work cover many aspects: physical and mental training, discipline, diet, perfecting style and machine. I don't know for sure, but I believe and rumor has it, that Contador has been the more zealous student this year. But I still cheer for the guy next to the heater in the back of the class room.

There is an overarching unquantifiable element to success: though Schleck gave the wrong answer in the mur de Mûr, and got that banderillo from Contador, and a precious reminder of all the above, he has been lucky. Napoleon asked when presented with a candidate for Maréchal de France: "Is the man lucky?" An impressive question to base a mission critical decision on it! Andy Schleck has been lucky so far.

I just changed my mind: Scleck wins, but which one? Because Contador has been unlucky and doesn't stop falling off his bike, a former Schleck specialty.